Found this on Reddit. Wish I found it sooner!
Firstly, Big Sandy:
AZL have been waiting for a licence to drill for >400 days. That's a licence to *drill*, not construct a mine. In order to mine, you can at least factor in another 2 years, just as we saw at Thacker Pass.
Timeline:
* Dec 2024: complete drilling & conduct technical studies, await record of decision from BLM
* 2025/6: record of decision *possibly* comes
* 2027/8: *possibly* resolve legal battles with indigenous owners
* early 2029: funding acquired *if possible*\^ & FID
* 2029/30: mechanical completion of plant
* 2031: commission & qualify cathode material
* 2032: achieve meaningful production
So if things go pretty well for them, you could hope for some decent production in 2032.
\^The problem is that sedimentary clay CAPEXs have spiralled out of control, and closest peer INR has flagged US$1.2b for 22ktpa of carbonate. If I had to take a wild guess, by the time INR receive ROD in early '24, I'd expect something closer to US$1.4b based on what I've seen at Thacker Pass.
In other words, AZL have very little chance of funding this project even if they make it through the legal gauntlet.
Quick note about lithium ppm, because you incorrectly compared brine from a clay area with sedimentary clay in another comment. Albemarle's Silver Peak is a brine—a [liquid](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a9/Chemetall_Foote_Lithium_Operation.jpg). AZL's clay is solid, so it needs a much higher ppm. Thacker Pass & INR are much better comparisons, with TP being about 60% purer than Big Sandy, and INR being a similar level to AZL.
Secondly, Prairie Lithium:
This remains AZL's hope at this stage, where technology may be able to unlock value here in a couple of years. Their brine purity, 111 mg/Li is lower than others, but it's still acceptable with the right technology.
It takes at least 2 years to customise a DLE tech to a brine, and probably longer.
I see they're hoping to get a pilot plant on site in November, and maybe complete a PFS by the end of the year.
So with that as a guide, rough timeline:
* end 2024: definitive feasibility study completed
* late 2025: DLE tech working OK & FEED study conducted
* 2026: try to secure US$500m+ CAPEX for a 10ktpa module
* 2027/8: if funding achieved, mechanically complete plant
* 2029: commission & qualify plant
* 2030: meaningful production
(20min delay)
