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Ann: PBH Recommends Fanatic's Improved Proposal of US$225 million, page-33

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Alphaking

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28/06/23

21:18

Post #: 68522350
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Originally posted by oligarch: ↑

Call the capital return 1.40 , you need to apply a DCF anaylis on that return as part will be returned in september (3 months) and the rest of it early next year (9 months).

so the value is more like 1.35.
Before the competing offer came the market was looking like it had setlled around 120m for the Aus and Canada business.

remember once the CR is complete they will only hold ~25mil cash.

the only way the market values the Aus business at 220m + is if a competitor made a takeover bid.... not a given and more likely not to happen.

if you consider fully diluted SOI of 328m and a max market value of 150m for what is leftover ypu get about 46c

so 1.79 would appear a realistic share price possibility once the vote comes in +

however, given they are unable to turn a profit in Aus and given the huge competition and headwinds they face, much less than 46cps is also likely.

2.00 would seem a max valuation on the stock and a takeover of the Aus business is needed for that.

i share the views of a lot of recent posters that these guys took for granted the US opportunity and didnt execute well enough. They mis managed costs and failed to pivot despite many many early warning signs.

they had no ability no improvise and be nimble, or be creative with their opportunity despite having one of the best apps backed by technology that is on par with the top 3 or 4 operators globally.

they had a lot of potential, but managers mis fired , big time.
They walk away , likely with massive number of free shares and certainly wont be stinging as much as the average Jo investor who was fed countless positivity quarter after quarter and given every excuse under the sun why things will get better.

time to move on!

Expand

ok then, why don’t you apply a DCF analysis to the Australian business . Your happy to stay static in last years numbers when it suits you.

go 5 years ahead with revenue growth at inflation with a small profit margin ( say 10%) . Youl be way over $200m .

The company focus will shift now the US is gone. - they will cut marketing and aim to be profitable . Nothings just gonna continue as is.

just remember who wanted this business and saw the potential of it.

PBH Price at posting: $1.64 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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(20min delay)
Last 47.0¢		Change 0.005(1.08%)		Mkt cap ! $154.4M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
47.0¢	47.5¢	46.5¢	$238.0K	506.8K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	69664	46.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
47.0¢	7499	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	67514	0.465
17	101276	0.460
5	34500	0.455
24	126144	0.450
7	92090	0.440

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.475	2120	2
0.480	121700	3
0.485	165556	4
0.490	54383	3
0.495	26815	3

Last trade - 16.10pm 12/07/2024 (20 minute delay)

PBH (ASX) Chart

Ann: PBH Recommends Fanatic's Improved Proposal of US$225 million, page-33

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Ann: PBH Recommends Fanatic's Improved Proposal of US$225 million, page-33

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