Today during the small caps investor presentation we witnessed the updated slide with the dosing levels in each cohort of Imugene's current MAST study. With the IV Monotherapy arm now dosing Vaxinia at at 1 x 10^8, and the combination arm dosing Vaxinia with Keytruda at 10 to the power of 7, we clearly are at the sharp end of what could be life changing for cancer patients, according to Professor Yuman Fong and Team Imugene. Whilst this is really a dose escalation trial, the bottom line is Imugene's oncolytic virus has exhibited "positive signs" at low doses, therefore at close to the now optimal dosage rates in the trial, the real impact of the drug on solid tumours can be felt.
Share prices are driven by supply and demand, as we realised today. Those who exited IMU in recent weeks to realise tax losses clearly wanted to stay on the Imugene train, with the ASX's T plus 3 settlement structure giving them the opportunity to hop back on the train as quickly as they could, before the start of the new financial year. As it turned out the 80 million shares traded was enough to push the IMU train a little faster. But imagine how fast the IMU train is set to take off when oncologists begin analysing their patient biopsies, blood tests and X-rays, having been treated with Vaxinia at these increased dosage levels. Once the virus takes effect, turning tumours from cold to hot, seeking them out, infecting and ultimately killing them, Pandora's box is surely set to be opened, is it not? Shut up shop, do not pass go, all roads lead to Rome would surely be the catch cry of these oncologists, as they prepare to scream from the rooftops of their new found friend, Vaxinia. Tweets of smiles on the faces of lab technicians working with Imugene on the Vaxinia trial say it all. Whispers from posters in and around these threads heighten our anticipation, if not expectation. The self assured look on Professor Fongs face when discussing Vaxinia at George Street Sydney in March of this year spoke volumes to those present. Late night TV viewers in the US in late 2022 had already come face to face with his confidence when speaking of Vaxinia. But alas, although it is not too far fetched for Professor Fong to think we could create a virus that only kills cancer, to the broader public clearly it is. The non believers, conspiracy theorists, down rampers, scared herd mentality and tall poppy cynics among us are all suggesting the notion a virus could have a hate on for solid tumours,(as Imugene CEO Leslie Chong so eloquently suggested), is pure folly to many.
Imugene is set to explode if news the Vaxinia Trial data is successful eventuates. How could it not? We have a world renowned surgeon and cancer research leader from the esteemed City of Hope Medical Facility stating "we are seeing unequivocal signs of cancer killing in humans". All we now await, is the data. For those focused on the share price rest assured if Vaxinia delivers the goods 10 cents is a side show, a mere smoke screen, or moment in time. Yes the data has been a long time coming. Many of us have been following CF33 and Vaxinia's progress for years now. Therefore when the principal investigator in the CF33 Trial Dr Yuan Yuan M.D. said during the Imugene Science Series in late 2021 she anticipated delivering news of the CF33 trial in the near future, many of us pinned our ears back, with the adrenalin rush simply too hard to handle. Given it's now a good 18 months to two years later the froth has definitely waned on what was back then a good beer head. But Vaxinia has potentially brought with it a stronger, if not tastier brew, one that satisfies a number of palates. Though tonight Vaxinia patients are not turning to alcohol to cleanse their palate. At the Vaxinia dosage rates now being applied to treat their solid tumours, they themselves must sit and wait, in search of what life's really all about, life itself.
I don't know how to value a virus that only kills cancer, for clearly there has never been one before. I do know the solid tumour market is forecast to gain 901 Billion USD by 2029, according to Data Bridge Research. The segments covered in their forecast include Site of Origin (Prostrate Cancer, Ovarian Cancer, Bladder Cancer, Pancreatic Cancer, Others), Therapy Type (Chemotherapy, Immunotherapy, Targeted Therapy), Route of Administration (Oral, Parenteral, Others), End-Users (Hospitals, Specialty Clinics, Homecare, Others), Distribution Channel (Hospital Pharmacy, Retail Pharmacy, Online Pharmacy, Others). Immunotherapy is niticeably but one chink in the solid tumour revenue chain. That said if the The Vaxinia Trial proves successful in treating up to 10 solid tumour indications in trial participants, surely a 50% market share of the immunotherapy segment is not out of the equation. N.b. For the record my calculator cannot perform the task of calculating the value a stock that owned such a virus could command, if approved by the FDA.( Let alone the P/E ratio).
Is it all a pipe dream? Can a virus really kill and eradicate cancer cells within patients? Could this virus really one day become human therapy? Are the City of Hope "now seeing in humans everything they saw previously in trials with animals". Is that possible? CF33 and Vaxinia killed up to 60 cancer lines pre-clinically, not to mention a few more.
These are seriously exciting times. Having recently lost a friend to pancreatic cancer, and hearing of another locally in the late stages of the disease, I am praying we hear more news of recent cohort results when Yuman visits here in mid to late July.We can then at least plan for the future in the knowledge they, and patients like them, may find some light at the end of what today is an extremely dark tunnel. Anyway these are my musings following a day when nurses, oncologists, surgeons and medical practitioners in cancer wards within hospitals the world over had much more to deal with than the price of a share or two. My musings in a world where cancer patients lay in bed tonight staring at an unwanted ceiling, praying for something, if not anything to break their drought. I have no idea tonight whether Vaxinia is the answer to their prayers. But if not Vaxinia, let there be something.
DYOR Seek investment advice as and when required Opinions only
P.s And god bless Yuman Fong for devoting his life to such a noble cause, win lose or draw. He's already a winner from where I sit.
IMU Price at posting:
9.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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