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After completing the cycle of explorer to producer recently our new cycle has begun with a truncated 5th I wouldnt necessarily call it down trend, cross trend might be more accurate. Wave 3 failed to get high enough above wave 1 to allow wave 4 to remain above wave 1, this is a key indicator of a truncated 5th & why I indicated to watch out for a possible top of wave 5 at 5.7 (turned out to be 5.6, & broadly speaking a head & shoulders formation for the cycle) We should now see an ABC corrective of the cycle, my guess is we will retest 4.4 supportline, possibly turning on 4.5, failing that gould go into the high 3's. Have to wait till the formation plays out to see how low we are going to go.

Sure as sheep shit grows on the hills of New Zealand we have begun corrective 2 (wave 1 nearly comlete) of the cycle from march 2009) on the major indeces, I'm hoping an end to the current 5 wave down will end with DJIA at 8900 & XAO at 4070 (give or take). i'm also optimistic that this will be the low of the year & we wont get a double dip until 2012 or 2013. My guess for now until Nov/Dec : crosstrend slighly upard followed by a -+2 year bull run.

WARNING: this is completely amateur tea leaf reading, I am not the author of the Elliott Wave Theory, this is just my reading of it.