I think all of us LTH and new holders (Welcome) need to remember historical valuations and current broker estimates for tonnage; If you look at these from a an official MRE/Jorc perspective in the end our share price/mcap will appreciate at a very quick rate.
- Historical sales of Lithium mines are circa 150mil per 10mt - Moblan, Manna spring to mind. ESS and Snowy (Chinese- auction mine in 2021 - 22mt) are similar in pricing metrics.
- Broker reports are using 80/120 per 10mt for an explorer and 300/360 mil per 10mt pre production. Most, if not all lithium explorers with a jorc/mre are above this metric in some form. I do note Gl1 and Gt1, however I think the market metrics are correct in excluding elements of their total MT so its lower than what they have provided.
Anyway, Wr1 does not have an official jorc/mre and we are being priced at 20mt with no future upside at the current share price. This does not makes sense considering;
- EH recently provided a view that 30mt had already been reached, with an exploration target of 80mt. So even using their tonnage view, Wr1 should be at least 300mil. I highlight at "least", because they note the exploration target as 80mt.
- I paid to have modelling done, and my tonnage was 53-63mt dependent on variables that I requested for the current assays - More to do with grade that influenced tonnage.
- My illustrious friend publicly provided 32mt, but privately provided 52mt as the current tonnage. Very close to my paid modelling. Both us have around 75mt if the FW/MZ continue to surface and east/west with continuity, this matches the view of EH and the exploration target
- Last month Cosmos?
@malibu_tan (Sorry, forgot again) did a presentation. The MD said that they had modelled Adina and it had least 50mt. I expect more broker reports to appear of the coming weeks and months.
These broker reports along with further assays will provide certainty of a tonnage without an official jorc/mre. With certainty those investors who have legitimate concerns about tonnage will invest. Although I am frustrated at this, I can understand that some, alot want validation that their investment has enough tonnage to warrant production. LRS and DLI are great examples of this. They have re rated on confirmations that they will move forward beyond exploration. For those of us who are sighted enough to see where Wr1 are heading, not just with Jamar/Adina, but with Cancet and PWM hold tight, when we explode because the penny drops, it will be more explosive than alot of us can envisage. We only have 170mil SOI available, it wont increase before the MRE. 75% is held by top 30, alot more by the top 50, when investors want in, they are going to have to chase whatever shares are available and it wont be many. Hope all this makes. Hold tight, be patient. H
(20min delay)