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BloombergNEF expects graphite demand by 2030 to quadruple.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) goes 10 years further out, predicting that growth in demand for selected minerals from clean energy technologies by scenario, 2020 relative to 2040, will see: increases of lithium 13x to 42x, graphite 8x to 25x, cobalt 6x to 21x, nickel 7x to 19x, manganese 3x to 8x, rare earths 3x to 7x, and copper 2x to 3x.
If we use the earlier-mentioned IEA forecast, that by the end of this year, 14 million electric vehicles will be sold worldwide, that equates to:14,000,000 x 70 kg graphite per EV = 980,000,000 kg/1,000 = 980,000 tonnes of graphite. Mined graphite production in 2022 was 1,300,000 tonnes, so 980,000 tonnes = 75% of 2022 production.Remember, the IEA says market penetration needs to reach around 60% by 2030 if the industry is to meet “net-zero” CO2 emissions by 2050. That would mean the number of electric vehicles on global roads jumps from 16.5 million in 2021 to 350 million in 2030, a 21-fold increase.
To calculate how much graphite this entails, we subtract 16.5 million from 350 million. Then divide this number by nine to give us how much graphite per year is required for meeting net-zero emissions:350,000,000 – 16,500,000 = 333,500,000/9 = 37,055,555. 37 million tonnes of graphite is 28x the amount of mined graphite in 2022, giving credibility to the IEA’s 25x forecast stated five paragraphs above.Except that it’s needed 10 year earlier than the IEA’s 2040 forecast. Note also that 37Mt needs to be added every year for nine years, meaning the mining industry would have to mine 28 times more graphite than currently, and then sustain this level of production to the end of the decade.
Let’s be conservative and say that EV penetration is only 30%, not 60%, by 2030, given the obstacles to EV ownership such as sticker shock and range anxiety. And that the net-zero target is woefully unrealistic and gets missed. That’s still a lot more graphite than currently available:175,000,000 – 16,500,000 = 158,500,000/9 = 17,611,111 tonnes. 17.6Mt of graphite is 13.5x the amount of mined graphite in 2022.
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