Banter and general comments, page-28434

First 28434 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
nevchev

4,365 Posts.

1311

05/07/23

15:24

Post #: 68635732
Share

Originally posted by mrplough ↑

There's an excellent post over on another Li board, which quotes the following figures (thanks for the numbers @steve10). I'm posting them as a bit of fun to show what we might be looking forward to once we've hit nameplate production and L.O.M. numbers hit 20+ years (< 6-8 month's time?).

ASX peers comparison:

PLS $15.65B MC / $2.48B run rate NPAT = PE 6.3.
AKE $10.58B MC / $657M run rate NPAT = PE 16.1.
MIN $14.25B MC / $774M run rate NPAT = PE 18.4.

Average PE = 13.6.

Considering our worst case scenario, with perhaps unfavourable offtake terms well below current prices (the presentations of late use the wording "Formula-based referencing market prices for spodumene concentrate" - what those terms are exactly, I guess we'll only find out in the next quarterly or the one after), let's say we get on average US$2500 per ton for our SC 5.5 spod.

All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) (US$/t) - LOM Average US$539. Planned output, 190kt p.a..

(US$2500 - US539) x 190 kt = US$373m = AUS$557m p.a..

Using the average PE valuation, our MC should be in the region of A$557m x 13.6 = A$7.5b once the above conditions are met.

In the lead up, let's say we encounter the inevitable hiccups and the output only hits say 60% of nameplate for the first 6 months (I understand from feet on the ground we're around this mark currently), we should be valued around the $4.5bn mark later this year.

That equates to 2.5 x our current MC, and a SP of $2.55.

This is why I continue to hold with an iron fist. Those are pessimistic numbers, not factoring in increased resource size, full / increased output, and better pricing than above.

The next 6 months should be very exciting for CXO holders, especially with all the M & A activity in this space. I just hope we get to reach our full potential before any aggressive T/O action happens.

Now is the time to sit back and enjoy watching it all gradually unfold.

Expand

https://www.google.com/search?q=lithium+price+forecast&client=tablet-android-samsung-rvo1&ei=IfykZJv8AcGw2roPm7yIiAc&start=20&sa=N&ved=2ahUKEwjbkLzB5_b_AhVBmFYBHRseAnE4ChDw0wN6BAgFEBc&biw=1280&bih=728&dpr=1.5
Australia forecasts brutal lithium price correction as output ...

Mining.com
https://www.mining.com › australia-forecasts-brutal-lit...

6 hours ago — Lithium hydroxide prices in 2023 are forecast to be almost a third below last year's average of $69,370 a tonne and will decline further next .

CXO Price at posting: 96.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

LVH

Livehire sees share rocket 91% on takeover bid by Humanforce

IR1

IRIS Metals sniffs 75 metres of lithium in South Dakota, pushing share price up 9.99%

Emerald & Azure score Digger & Dealer awards

ORP

Orpheus delays drilling at South Australian play Frome, on traditional owner advice

Bitcoin: Current State of Play & Where to Next | Swyftx

There are more pages in this discussion • 10,688 more messages in this thread...

First 28434 Last

Add CXO (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 9.3¢		Change 0.001(1.09%)		Mkt cap ! $198.7M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
9.4¢	9.7¢	9.2¢	$1.476M	15.69M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
8	608015	9.2¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
9.4¢	219105	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
8	608015	0.092
31	2405503	0.091
60	3313927	0.090
15	1139919	0.089
17	1200855	0.088

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.094	219105	1
0.095	342337	6
0.096	408392	8
0.097	1039902	11
0.098	1113025	12

Last trade - 16.10pm 14/08/2024 (20 minute delay)

CXO (ASX) Chart

Banter and general comments, page-28434

Livehire sees share rocket 91% on takeover bid by Humanforce

IRIS Metals sniffs 75 metres of lithium in South Dakota, pushing share price up 9.99%

Emerald & Azure score Digger & Dealer awards

Orpheus delays drilling at South Australian play Frome, on traditional owner advice

Bitcoin: Current State of Play & Where to Next | Swyftx

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Banter and general comments, page-28434

Top Stories

Livehire sees share rocket 91% on takeover bid by Humanforce

IRIS Metals sniffs 75 metres of lithium in South Dakota, pushing share price up 9.99%

Emerald & Azure score Digger & Dealer awards

Orpheus delays drilling at South Australian play Frome, on traditional owner advice

Bitcoin: Current State of Play & Where to Next | Swyftx

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News