Whether one agrees with the Nightmarket views or not there are two aspects which are clear:
1. PMT transparency in public announcements is poor relative to its peers.
I reviewed the public disclosures from 7 lithium stocks with significant or potentially significant lithium resources being PLS, LTR, KDR (taken over by Wesfarmers), DLI, WR1, AZS and PMT and these were obvious conclusions:
- AZS has the best public disclosure AZS (ie a clear 1st) followed equal 2nd by KDR, LTR, PLS and DLI, 6th was WR1 and last was PMT (which to be clear PMT transparency is relatively poor). I have learnt all announcements are not equal and one has to consider the old saying the devil is in the detail. The detail is:
- AZS included cross-sections and true widths
- LTR , PLS,, DLI and KDR all included cross-sections but not one appeared to include true widths in the table of assay results
- while WR1 included cross sections (but not true widths) the detail in the cross sections was poor ie did not include outline of mineralisation like AZS, LTR, DLI, KDR and PLS which effectively meant the cross-sections were of limited value. However, for DLI, PLS, LTR and KDR the cross-sections make it obvious that the great majority, if not all, of mineralised intersections were close to true width ie the holes were close to 90 degrees to the mineralisation
- PMT have disclosed neither true width and no cross-sections since June 2022.
AZS included both cross-sections and true widths and effectively PMT provided neither except for a couple of cross-sections up to June 2022.
PMT’s poor disclosure should be seen as a big red flag for investors and if other posters disagree then, sorry for this comment, they are just putting their head in the sand. Some investors would not invest in stocks with poor transparency but really that is a decision for individual investors.
2. Brokers and analysts have a range of PMT maiden MRE ranging from 90mt to 160mt or from 70mt if you include Nightmarket. It is 100% obvious there is a huge amount of uncertainty around the MRE. Ie highest is about double the lowest an absurdly large range. This is totally due to PMT’s poor disclosure. No one knows which one is reasonable - it’s like asking should PMT be valued at $1b or $2b.
Frankly, with PMT’s poor disclosure it is not possible to estimate PMT’s MRE.
Shareholders of PMT are invested in a risky stock, more risky than they realise. No one knows what the likely MRE will be and if they believe they know then they are fooling themselves. Will it be 70mt or 120mt or 160mt? No one knows.
I am not down ramping just pointing out the obvious based on research on peers stocks to PMT.
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