Target $18.72, page-6290

A few days before the quarterly and then still another month away from full-year reporting wanted to refresh my numbers, I like this period of trying to buy off-market without competition from the buyback... Hopefully, it trends lower next few days before the paycheque comes

looking at the weather retrospectively over the quarter think we are set to report 13mt equity coal sales at a cash cost of $105/t - I am forecasting an average sale price of US$175 the lag between spot pricing and forward sales resulting in revenue of $415m

- It's also the first quarter of the coal reservation scheme so taken this into account
- I have sizeable tax being paid in the quarter for FY23 as a return to quarterly income tax payments (FY22 tax paid in Q2)
- still have a very strong balance sheet expecting $1.9bn in cash after tax payments
- forecast $1.65bn end of q1-23 post buyback and dividend
- now using the correct SOI for dividends excluding the milestone shares
- I'm forecasting a 45c final dividend to get declared in August being around 65% of NPAT if you include the $870m in buybacks (actual plus final quarter forecast) over 12m to the end of Q1-23
- exchange rate running at 67c.
- Showing 10% dividend growth but most importantly it's costing us ~10% less than the final dividend in FY22 given the reduction in shares on issue, the power of the buyback
- currently trading around 2.5-3.0x forward earnings based on a coal price ~USD$150t, remain comfortable in this level

At the full year, Im looking for some signs that forward production numbers grow and hopefully, some sort of meaningful accretive deal to use up some of this dry powder we have. Would love to see a BHP acquisition to double our production based off a small forward earnings multiple, otherwise, I think we are going to be in for a very nice xmas present in the later part of the year (plus further buy backs)...

Remaining a buyer at this level would fill the boots starting with a $5x and will accumulate dips from here aligning with cash availability. Most importantly don't see the supply/demand dynamic materially changing next 24-36 months