Personally I see the weakness in QPM' SP correlated more to a major deterioration in risk appetite that has gripped the entire equity market (particularly small caps) ever since inflation, and therefore higher interest rates (cost of capital), have materialised.
Sighting spot Nickel price, Indonesian Nickel supply, and other factors, although arguable at some point in time, are stretching a long bow now given the fact QPM has not achieved FID (yet), and when they do go into production, input (ore) and output (processed ore), are somewhat price movement correlated to QPM's advantage. What makes QPM unique is the output (processed ore) is forward sold to GM, LG Chem etc., albeit at underlying price at the time of sale, guaranteeing cash-flow from operations.
I have dealt with Indonesia for years (have been there 3 times in last 6 months), have structured many multi-million dollar deals for foreign companies building a presence there and exporting. Here is my take out. China has concentrated its efforts in securing Indonesian nickel for a reason. Both countries care little for ESG, not judging, just stating a fact. Chinese companies have dealt with Indonesia across many industries for decades. There is a level of comfort between Indonesia and China. However, there a a LOT of foreign companies (particularly from the west) uncomfortable dealing with Indonesia, not so much for ESG, because of other reasons (like legal system). My point here is you can't say Indonesia will control the Nickel market from a battery metal perspective. There are many, many, foreign companies who will look at other jurisdictions to secure Nickel, and this is why GM did what they did with QPM.
Short term, QPM SP remains under pressure, and understandably so. Many have been quick to state's dissatisfaction in the progress, fine, but that's happening everywhere, not specific to QPM.
My interaction with QPM management gives me no reason to doubt that one day we will all look back and scratch our heads as to why the worry....
I've been investing for 4 decades, seen a lot, been spooked a lot, but only a few times have I had reason to remain invested when others leave the building. Last time I almost got spooked I reminded myself to believe in my own due diligence and not get swayed by anonymous comment. Result, 12 months later a 7 bagger.
Let's see how this plays out. DYOR & GLTAH.
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