at the risk of starting to make up numbers, I feel the uptake per month will not be linear. Rather, I see a 5-10% month on month increase for the first few Q.
Firstly, because ACAD did not commit to forecasting for 3 full Quarters, yet here we are 12 weeks in with a forecast. This suggests that they are pleasantly 'surprised' by the uptake and believe these numbers are robust rather than a surge of uptake post FDA that will taper off.
Secondly, given that the market wasn't expecting a forecast, it would be foolish to make one and under deliver. That gives me confidence that the 45-50M is comfortably attainable.
Thirdly, as patient experiences hit the media, any niggling concerns about efficacy or tolerability will become less of a issue for both prescribing physicians and caregivers. Those with a wait and see approach to this drug may well be convinced to give it a go.
NEU Price at posting:
$13.59 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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