"NdPr-oxide pricing is irrelevant"... that's another conundrum, because a project losing money on every tonne of NdPr mined needs to be subsidised by someone. Who are you suggesting, more Aussie taxpayers, European taxpayers, or the EV companies desperate for ex-China NdPr?
If there is a lot of NdPr supply coming on from new mines/expansions profitable at US$100/t NdPr over the next 5 years (eg LYC, MEI, LIN, ILU etc), how much and how long do you expect these subsidies to last? Even if a fixed price subsidy off-take is signed up for HAS, is it just enough to cover opex and repay capex debt, or is there a little extra for shareholder profits? No profits means HAS is a near worthless zombie producer, high profits means lots of subsidies over and above a 'just-enough to get up' fixed price off-take.
Besides reality of NdPr prices, it is all about politics and seeking enough subsidies to make up for very high capex/opex per tonne NdPr at Yangi. Charles is pushing hard, selling the dream as usual, and does have tailwind of governments wanting to lock in supply chain and subsidise new mines behind him. Never say never, but it's a high-risk investment imo.
Good luck
HAS Price at posting:
$1.27 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)