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World equities fall after China data
China GDP up 0.8% q/q, monthly data mixed
Wall Street gains as investors await earnings
Packed earnings diary includes Tesla, more banks
Global shares slipped and the dollar eased on Monday after data showed the Chinese economy is growing more slowly than anticipated, but U.S. stocks rose on expectations companies' earnings will exceed forecasts and the U.S. consumer will keep spending.
China reported growth of 0.8% in the second quarter, above the 0.5% forecast, while the annual pace slowed more than expected to 6.3%, well below expectations for a reading of 7.3%.
Analysts said the data suggests China's post-COVID boom is over. But fears in the United States earlier in the year of a hard economic landing have dissipated as slower consumer inflation has brightened the U.S. outlook as companies report second-quarter results.
"The hurdle rate for companies is a little bit higher than it's been over the last couple of quarters but S&P 500 companies have been able to mostly surpass really low analyst estimates coming into the earnings season," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Troy, Michigan.
"What the market is going to be looking for over the next few weeks is whether demand is holding up and are the corporate outlooks still generally positive for the rest of the year?"
Tesla is the first of the big tech names to report this week, along with Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Netflix.
Stocks in Europe were weaker, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index .STOXX down 0.60% while MSCI's U.S.-centric gauge of stocks across the globe .MIWD00000PUS was slightly lower by 0.01%.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI rose 0.18%, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 0.20% and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 0.47%.
The dollar traded around flat against a basket of currencies after last week suffering its largest weekly decline in 2023 as Treasury yields tumbled.
The currency will likely consolidate as investors await the Federal Reserve's meeting next week, when the U.S. central bank is widely expected to hike rates a further 25 basis points.
Retail sales for June on Tuesday will be the main U.S. economic data for the week, though the news is unlikely to sway the path of monetary policy or market direction.
Data on U.S. retail sales are expected to show a rise of 0.3% ex-autos, continuing the slower trend but solid enough to fit into the market's favored soft-landing theme.
Futures are pricing in an additional 32 basis points of tightening this year, with the benchmark rate expected to peak at 5.40% in November. That implies the market sees a low chance of further rate hikes after the Fed concludes a two-day meeting on July 26. FEDWATCH
The dollar index =USD fell 0.002%, with the euro EUR= up 0.02% to $1.1229.
U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply last week as slowing consumer and producer price inflation in June increased expectations that pricing pressures will continue to moderate and lead to more dovish monetary policy.
The two-year US2YT=RR Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 1.5 basis points at 4.766%, while benchmark 10-year notes US10YT=RR rose 1.4 basis points to 3.834%.
Sterling reversed course, falling 0.2% to $1.3089 GBP=D3 ahead of UK inflation figures this week, where another high reading would add to the risk of further sizable rate hikes.
"A lift in the core CPI can encourage financial markets to price in even more tightening from the Bank of England and push GBP/USD up towards upside resistance at $1.3328," said analysts at CBA in a note.
Oil dropped by more than 1% after the weaker than expected Chinese economic growth.
U.S. crude CLc1 fell 0.74% to $74.86 per barrel and Brent LCOc1 was at $79.22, down 0.81%.
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