I was just talking about the royalties and the significant changes in cost of production.
Regarding next dividend I think there are too many variables to know. They have a fair bit of cash on hand $800+ million so what they could pay a fair bit if they wanted to The cost of production and the coal price are the main variables. I could take a guess based off some assumptions though: (keep in mind I've just started looking at NHC)
Ok assumptions:
4th quarter realised coal price $140US (where 3rd quarter was $286, 1st half was $467)
2.45 mil tons sold in 4th quarter (bring a total of the year to 8mil)
the cost per tonne ratio is the same asQ3 (profit about 27%)
payout ration from free cashflow 50%
capital expenditure $127 mil
Given this my guess is 43 cents dividend. let me know if anyone has any comments!
Keep in mind from what I can see there is no debt to pay now but we have a share buyback so they might want to change they amount they pay back.....or they could be looking to buy other assets (please no!) so I guess it could change wildly.
NHC Price at posting:
$4.89 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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The cost of production and the coal price are the main variables. I could take a guess based off some assumptions though: (keep in mind I've just started looking at NHC)
(20min delay)