heading back to where it belongs, page-15

Looks like we are having two days where traders (and clearly some of them are institutional) are trying to push the SP lower - and it is forming a solid floor where its major resistance is anyway. A number of technical indicators show it to be grossly oversold.

Hardman is probably one of the most actively traded stocks around at the moment - attracting day and short term traders - and hence maybe the large swings as traders get squeezed on either the short or as happened this week - on the long side - with the SP overshooting where the fundamentals - and even normnal TA would take it.

If the market was seriously valuing Hardman at these levels - then it would and should be a takeover target. If someone offered say $2.20 today - I am sure the SP would quickly be at $2.50 - as thats where the real risk adjustemed value is - and then any offer would have to include a premium above that to refelct the value of copntrol and blue sky - especially Uganda.

If Heritage report a stunning success in Uganda - then Hardman's potential is vastly increased - as Uganda could be another Mauritania for Hardman. Remeber - Hardman is exploring in the net block in the same reservoir structure - and there are oil seeps in bothareas.

Someone posted a question today - Hold or Sell - my answer is why not BUY? I admit that I am not buying today - I want to wait for confirmation of a move up - it was not hard to lighten up at $1.80 when it seemed clear the SP wanted to go for a slide - but I find it very hard to sell more at $1.60. Maybe it could go another 10 cents on a final push - but by then I would expect the takover defence team Hardman has engaged to start earning their money.

Is the share price slide really relevent to Hardman - NO - as most company projections have been done with an oil price below $30 - and as have analysts valuations - which are all still well north of the current SP.

Cheers TGN