NVA 7.50% 18.5¢ nova minerals limited

General Chat, page-6569

  1. 3,281 Posts.
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    If you see the amount of large sell orders constantly appearing and moving down with the SP, it looks more like a orchestrated campaign. 300-400K sell bid been there daily since half a year at least and similar size bid book a few pips below, leading to slow bleed lower. Now seems like accumulation but same bid books.
    almost like a party or parties wanted to accumulate at low levels (and seemingly with the help of hired trolls on HC who go quite when no need for fear montering).

    Listing on USA markets can be a boost but is not going to rerate just by itself. Professional management commentary (not sales pitches); getting a real investor in (Sprott, RR, a mining major); and continued market updates is what is going to make the SP go up.

    Yes. NVA is unloved in Oz. Yes the Estelle neighbor is valued more. Yes, we should be valued higher.

    But management is not trusted after the MRE, where we were all made to believe by CG that 6-7 Moz indicated was on the cards. Spinning the SS2 as something amazing can only be defended if you don’t know the story to the run up of the MRE/SS2. Getting it so wrong is a bad mark on management and cannot be blamed on the new ‘conservative geologist’.

    So yeah. We are back to the new reality for a while now. 650 M usd PRE tax, at a deceptive 5% discount rate, and only 85% is ours.

    using a 8% discount rate is realistic nowadays and the NPV should be post tax. You would still get a decent number, maybe 400M usd perhaps? So that would mean that at PFS we would be 120M fair value MC? Hopefully with higher grade and more Oz in RPM so maybe we can double that.

    Luckily gold is continuing to be strong and maybe we can get some copper too (for post 2030 revenue). And LITM May add another 100M long term.

    All in all still strong future possibilities, but we have been set back 2 years due to mistakes and false geology (the blame for that is 100% attributable to our CEO).
 
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