Half year result guesses, page-20

I hope you're right W - as we both noted when the Q1 APRA statistics were reported in May - PCA coverage had fallen to 1.73 x.

When you dig into the filing - https://www.apra.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-05/Quarterly%20general%20insurance%20institution-level%20statistics%20March%202023.xlsx

You can see that their PCA has gone from $848 M at 31 Dec 22 to $945 M at 31 Mar 23. This is mainly due to a change in the Insurance Concentration Risk Charge. There was also large fall in Tier 1 equity from $1.605 B at 31 Dec 2022 to $1.445 B at 31 Mar 23. There is movement across retained earnings, and current year earnings which may be due to implementation of AASB-17 but we can't see their working here.

We know that they have had high cancellations during this period, it does not make any sense that their PCA would go up that much in a quarter and also see a reduction in Tier 1 equity.

So (according to this submission) we have a lower numerator (Tier 1 equity) and high denominator (PCA) - will be interesting to see how this explained in the half yearly.