Gwaihir,
I know you have done very nicely out of investing, and I agree there are a lot of posters that are a little naive, not just here but on many stocks.
"Not going to sell until paying divi's" "anyone selling now is crazy, could miss a big run" etc etc
Everyone needs to understand risk and reward and how that sits with your ability to take on risk.
LLL is currently 25% of LTR MC, for good reason. It's in Mali. You can cut and dice the % each of us thinks LLL should be of LTR, but the fact is its close to the highest it's been since listing.
Banking profits in a tax effective manner is one of the things many do not seem to plan effectively.
How many Core holders tonight are crying into their beer, seeing the SP drop 61% in 8 months?
All projects have potential or actual headwinds. In all jurisdictions for different reasons.
Yes Leo carries a lot of risks given its location and the Junta. People need to understand this.
Like any Govt. they want to extract as much from Mining companies as they can. 55% ? Why not.
Australian mining companies when selling a project to investors always quote the lowest possible tax that the project will be up for.
But the moment anyone mentions an additional mining tax or royalties, they are already paying 70% in taxes, because the accountants trot out Payroll tax, PAYG (employees pay not the company but they don't care), Royalties, company tax, Shareholders tax above the franking credits etc etc etc to give them an effective tax rate of 77%
Does Mali need Leo? probably NO.
Though I actually think there is one thing it gives to Mali, and thats some semblance of credibility and ensures transparency, in particular in the amount thye will receive for their product.
Leo as a listed company will be the only way there is any transparency in pricing. Good luck ensuring a fair price is received dealing direct with China.
They could kick Leo out, but they would likely kill any Western investment. Does Goita want to be the next Robert Mugabe? Maybe. It is a risk everyone
I believe the DRC Government do not want AVZ involved in Manono, however they actually do not want to get too officially involved for fear of Western investment falling off a cliff. The ownership has always been a mess with that one.
Goulamina has no ownership issues, it would be a straight seize the asset and Nationalise it. The Gold miners there would cease any investment immediately, it would be a run things down, get as much cash out ASAP.
I don't believe Ganfeng would want anything to do with this kind of activity. Leo gives them a semblance of credibility also. They have many JV's. There would be immense reputation damage to them.
No doubt the DSO letter is a shot across the bow to instigate further dialogue on a better return for Mali on its Sovereign assets.
They are cash poor so they can't take a higher % and offset tax without impacting the countries income.
I doubt this development is a surprise at all to Simon and Rick.
Of course I could be wrong and one of our regular poster is likely holding a black mass tonight to wish LLL goes to hell.
We shall see
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