I'm not scaring anyone but we need to be realistic about what our investment is worth.
I have tried looking for reasonable comparable companies to give some bones to my expectations.
Pine Chemical/Chemical Manufacturing Industry Averages are PE 12.7, Revenue Growth 4.8%, Net Margin 6.7%.
One of the bigger companies is Eastman Chemical which has an average PE of 14 and Net Margin of 9.3%.
Australian Average PE 15.
Using the above I made some basic calculations. Last year Leaf released a presentation in which they gave some revenue estimates for the 16000tpa plant (twice the size of the original Apple Tree Crk plant). They listed potential Revenue as $68mil.
Therefore once OPERATING:
$68mil @ Net Margin 10% (better than Eastman or Industry Avg) = $6.8mil Net Income / 2.06Bil shares = 0.0033 EPS
Therefore at the Australian AVG PE 15 = $0.05 Per Share ($103mil Mkt Cap), at above AVG PE 20 = $0.07 Per Share ($144mil Mkt Cap).
Considering the current Market Cap of $39mil there is potential upside once operational, hence why I still hold but that does come with a time frame.
There has been talk of $1Bil Valuations Leaf would require 7-10 fully operation 16000tpa plants to be justified on averages.
I understand the market is growing and commodity prices are growing but so are labour cost and construction costs. Which I believe will fairly balance each other as far as my above number remaining relevant. As seen with the current manufactures and miners.
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Last
0.6¢ |
Change
-0.002(25.0%) |
Mkt cap ! $14.13M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
0.8¢ | 0.8¢ | 0.5¢ | $88.53K | 14.97M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 100000 | 0.6¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.7¢ | 4164990 | 5 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 100000 | 0.006 |
6 | 1729401 | 0.005 |
7 | 4690199 | 0.004 |
3 | 850000 | 0.003 |
2 | 900000 | 0.002 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.007 | 4164990 | 5 |
0.008 | 2158404 | 6 |
0.009 | 1712527 | 3 |
0.010 | 1255379 | 2 |
0.011 | 267485 | 3 |
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