Still digesting the information, but a few things to note from the quarterlies and noosa mining conference presentation:
1. Gold sales of 58,960 oz with average selling price of $2668. This should have equated to $157m of net receipts but the cashflow report only shows $149.5m.
2. The forward estimates appear very conservative. I half suspect they are under promising and hoping to over deliver. The fy guidance is probably based on the models which have not been updated for the actual results coming through. If you look at the noosa presentation on page 9, they are at RL5215 / 5205. The expected gold in the next few levels are approximately the same as what we have been through in the June quarter. If the June quarter levels are sustained, we are looking closer to 240koz. I don't have enough information on satellite mines (i.e. Darlot) and their grade to really break down the fy24 guidance, and therefore appreciate the limitation of this simple 'guess' work.
3. If they only deliver 200koz in fy24, I'm expecting AISC of $2,000. However, if they can deliver 240koz, AISC to be $1700.
4. Still updating my models. But looking increasingly possible to be debt free in CY2023 or perhaps Q1CY2024. Also trying to reconcile discrepancy in point 1 above!
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