So much under valued, page-47

I doubled my position today, admittedly it is still not a large one. Some very rough numbers:

Backwards-looking (FY23 actuals)
Shares outstanding: 1,368M
SP: A$1.71
FX: 0.67 AUDUSD
Market Cap: US$1,567M
Less cash of US$522M
EV: US$1,045M

At average sale price of US$1,803/oz, AISC of US$959, and production of 535koz, using ~90% ownership that's EV/EBITDA of 2.6x

Forwards-looking (CY23 guidance)

Shares outstanding: 1,368M
SP: A$1.71
FX: 0.67 AUDUSD
Market Cap: US$1,567M
Less cash of US$622M (assuming they add ~US$50M p/q for the next six months - haven't factored dividends though)
EV: US$945M

At average sale price of say US$1,900/oz (bearing in mind the hedge book protection), taking midpoint of AISC US$1,060/oz and midpoint of production guidance, 90% ownership means EV/EBITDA of 2.4x

Happy to take the country risk here for that price. At a SP of A$2.30 just a few months ago it was trading on 3.9x EV/EBITDA.

Cheers