Hi Smith71,
It's critically important, imo, to factor in the longer-term plans of the business.
The 2ktpa starter is merely a stepping stone to a larger operation. 2ktpa was NEVER the end goal.
AFAICT it has enabled us to maintain momentum during lean and difficult times, while we work towards a favourable funding deal for a larger project that has better outcomes for shareholders. This has had the hugely beneficial "side effect" of enabling recruitment and training of a very scarce workforce, btw.
Anyway, that modelling that I presented in the General thread actually shows a NET LOSS for the first (next) 3 years.
Does that mean AGY is worthless? Of course not.
The market is forward-looking, and also imo often irrational and controlled/dominated by deep pockets. It "should" generally partly recognising future value, but how far forward and when...? Ask 10 people and get 10 different answers.
It's basically risk vs reward vs timing.
Eg. if someone was very confident that a company's EPS would grow from $1 to $10 over the next 5 years, they might factor that into their assessment by comparing current vs future P/E and estimating expected average annual returns or similar, if it suits their time horizon. I'm sure you know all this, just food for thought for some who might find it useful.
So, the question here is essentially.... where is AGY likely to be in the period of your choice, and how much of that future value "should" the market factor in on the way to or at that point...? or something like that. See my EPS chart (for one scenario) in the other thread; it varies considerably with time, and one must also factor in what other opportunities are presented with the cash that is generated over time. Will they simply pay it out to shareholders or develop other projects/expansion in the future..?
Lots to think about, for sure. Have a look at my economic modelling posts in the other thread and perhaps I can run a scenario you think is reasonable or of interest to you...?
IMO
NOT advice
DYOR
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Last
5.1¢ |
Change
0.002(4.08%) |
Mkt cap ! $69.88M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
5.0¢ | 5.3¢ | 4.6¢ | $336.6K | 6.616M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
6 | 238639 | 5.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
5.2¢ | 115027 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
6 | 238639 | 0.050 |
4 | 122689 | 0.049 |
6 | 734426 | 0.048 |
3 | 534096 | 0.047 |
3 | 64000 | 0.046 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.052 | 115027 | 3 |
0.053 | 82301 | 4 |
0.054 | 253000 | 2 |
0.055 | 191397 | 4 |
0.059 | 309796 | 2 |
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