New valuation of PYC

Decided to do a quick valuation model. Notes below

Only considers VP-001. No value assigned to pipeline nor platform.

All figures USD
Addressable market (annual) - 1 billion p.a.
Probability of FDA approval - 65% (based on PYC presentation citing monogenic disease target drugs)
Additional development cost - $50m (excludes current cash on hand)
Years to market - 3 years
Discount rate - 10% (appropriate as its very stable cashflow once FDA approved. Probability of approval already included above)
Years of patent protection from today - 17 years

NPV - $2.9 bn USD

If I reduce probability of FDA approval to 10%, we still get a valuation of $450m USD


With a current market cap of $150m USD, PYC is very undervalued. Of course this may reflect the binary nature of potential outcomes (drugs can either get approved, or get rejected)