Decided to do a quick valuation model. Notes below
Only considers VP-001. No value assigned to pipeline nor platform.
All figures USD
Addressable market (annual) - 1 billion p.a.
Probability of FDA approval - 65% (based on PYC presentation citing monogenic disease target drugs)
Additional development cost - $50m (excludes current cash on hand)
Years to market - 3 years
Discount rate - 10% (appropriate as its very stable cashflow once FDA approved. Probability of approval already included above)
Years of patent protection from today - 17 years
NPV - $2.9 bn USD
If I reduce probability of FDA approval to 10%, we still get a valuation of $450m USD
With a current market cap of $150m USD, PYC is very undervalued. Of course this may reflect the binary nature of potential outcomes (drugs can either get approved, or get rejected)
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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4 | 358442 | 0.098 |
4 | 180468 | 0.097 |
5 | 260211 | 0.096 |
6 | 134562 | 0.095 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.120 | 676921 | 7 |
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