General discussion, page-16390

I am going to share a cautionary tale based on real market data points for another company everyone is familiar with.

Amazon.

This is NOT to say that Incannex will follow the same trajectory Amazon did, but this will illustrate very clearly why some of our resident turkeys are foolish to attack Joel for the current share price before any of the high-potential trials have had a chance to fail or succeed.

On December 10th 1999, Amazon SP hit a high of $5.36.
On October 5th 2001, Amazon SP hit a low of $0.36. In the space of less than two years, the company lost more than 93% of its market cap.

93%

93%.
Amazon.

No doubt, there were turkeys back then, grumbling about how Jeff Bezos was failing them. Maybe some of them suggested he shouldn't take a salary. Maybe others called those who calmly held... a cult. The turkeys almost certainly opined to all who would listen that since the market is 'never wrong', there must be something wrong with Amazon. That anyone who paid more attention to the fundamental position and prospects of the business above the punctual share price was living on 'hopium', or wearing 'rose-colored glasses'. As a matter of public record, many sold in fear. 118 million shares were sold that day. Conversely, 118 million shares were bought that day by investors who saw value and picked up a bit of a bargain. 36c per share of Amazon.


Those who grumbled but continued to hold... now that the share price is 383 times higher than that low of October 5th 2001... do you think any of them spare a thought for the uncharitable words they had for the company back then? Do you think many of them ever own up to having behaved like turkeys? Sadly, my bet is most of them just congratulate themselves on having made a fortune. 100k invested that day would now be 38.3 million dollars. To these sorts of people, the business isn't real. The people who run the business, provide its vision and pour their life energies into growing it... aren't real. Instead the company is just a placeholder for their fantasies of self-enrichment. They put into that placeholder all their emotions of the moment, regarding their fantasy. If the share price is heading in the right direction, they place their giddiness in that placeholder. The company is golden, the management are geniuses, go you legend. If the share price is heading in the wrong direction for long enough, they dump their fears, resentment and aggression in the placeholder instead. The company is a dog, the management are crooks... etc, ad nauseam.

Do you see the parallels with horse race gambling? The punter observes the race and goes through a thousand emotions from start to finish line. Cursing, swearing, praising, cajoling, jumping for joy and bowing his head in resignation. The horse isn't real to them. The horse is a lottery number. The horse is a star they are wishing on.

Incannex's future is unknown. One thing is absolutely certain. Today's share price is not a reflection of what it will be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years from now. However today's fundamentals will absolutely be reflected in the fundamentals of the future. Long term, fundamentals drive share price. In other words, looking at today's share price tells you absolutely nothing about the future. Fundamentals can tell you a lot.

I would express the hope that some of the people who frequent this forum can absorb this basic information and use it to become better, more serene investors, and help to uplift the quality of this space... but this forum will probably be closing in a few months, if shareholders vote to leave the ASX in favor of direct listing on the NASDAQ. So hoping this space improves seems like a waste of energy. By definition, it will probably become stuck in the past while the reddit group started by @thevinnys for IXHL, our NASDAQ ticker, will pick up forward-looking momentum.

For those of us who will be continuing the journey with Incannex on the NASDAQ, I look forward to reading you elsewhere.
To those of us who are forced to sell for whatever reason, but still recognize how well the company has developed its assets to date, I wish you the best.

To those of us who do nothing but complain: please sell. I wish you the best, but I will not miss you. (Please read euphemism into that final statement).