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Mbalam railway construction starts late August 2023, page-169

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wot

11,745 Posts.

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08/08/23

21:03

Post #: 69232527
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Originally posted by Praetor: ↑

What is silly is discounting the importance of the West Africa Project. FMG has historically only had low grade Iron Ore, but with 69% ownership of the 67% FE high grade Iron Bridge mine will surely add value to the 210MTPA they’re expecting to export. I think that’s why FMG took a direct interest in Belinga, for which they expect to start trucking out Ore by the end of this year. They need a rail connection to port.

The FMG MC is AUD65B (USD42B) so the West Africa Project is significant smaller from the information provided to date (USD10B) but I expect that to increase as the project starts to add mines and non-iron ore minerals to the scope…if that happens.Certainly the FMG SP at $21 AUD is strong. Can’t very well expect any relisting/IPO to get near that for some years, but longer term is possible.

We are expecting 100MTPA from the Congo mines, and then potential for adding 12 more mines which would have to include Mbalam, Nkout and a few other significant targets along the rail line. So, 200MTPA longer term a possibility. Most all of which is high grade with an operation stretching out to 20+ years. CMRG is going to need this project to add clout to its scope.

And then we would have connected projects such as Ports, Steel Mills and additional rail to factor in. Again, if this is how it plays out. This is afterall a mining beachhead that will expand far past the Western midpoint of Kribi. And China has been politically active to fill the sorrowful treatment of African nations by the West.

So, I don’t wholly disagree with you, but whether the comparison is silly remains to be seen. ANS is the infrastructure part of this Mega project, and we don’t yet know what % that represents of the overall project, nor the $ value of the whole project.I

’ll be interested to see if FMG fortify their haul of African IO via the infrastructure that’s touted. Most of their non-Pilbara output is low grade, so adding high grade sources is vital to keep pace with the major miners. Iron Bridge and Belinga will give them that opportunity.

But Wot is expecting a rug pull, which doesn’t make sense to me, given the project has not failed and the silence many complain about speaks volumes. The major offtaker in this project has yet to be determined, but it’s not hard to place Baowu in the mix. Silly may well be those that look past China and its ambitions in Africa.

I’ll happily wear egg on my face if this fails and the return for SH is zero. Don’t manifest that. Bad for the soul and the retirement aims.

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What are you going to do about it when Ding squirrels this across to a new Chinese Co and keeps it all for himself? International arbitration? Asic? Aus Govt? Clifford Chance gonna step up? You have nothing but a non-binding Mou.. Alot of money to just hand over to an aussie shell with ZERO avenue for recourse.

Last edited by wot: 08/08/23

ANS Price at posting: 1.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Mbalam railway construction starts late August 2023, page-169

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