CHN Sale, page-128

@Hillman787 My broker is Bell Potter - I'll publish part of a report from them - (conclusions at your own risk, please - the bolding is mine)

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Chalice Mining Ltd (CHN) 26 July 2023

Scoping Study to be completed this quarter
CHN is targeting the completion of the Scoping Study for the Gonneville Ni-Cu-PGE project in the current quarter. This represents a major milestone and will be based on the latest (third) Mineral Resource estimate for the project, which was completed in March 2023.
The Scoping Study will be our first look at the open-pit mining strategy, process flow sheet,project capital costs and operating costs.
We anticipate it will evaluate two development scenarios (a smaller scale staged development and a large scale bulk development). We expect it to be a major catalyst for project valuations and for the strategic partnering process that is currently underway. Demonstration of globally relevant production scale, a viable process route, strong financial performance metrics, achievable CAPEX, attractive operating costs and product marketing avenues will all be key drivers of value attribution by both the market and potential partners.Strategic deposit.

We anticipate that Gonneville and the Julimar project will be gaining close attention from major, global mining companies due to:

• The globally significant scale of the Resource and being the second largest undeveloped nickel sulphide resource in Australia;
• The project’s setting in the world’s top-rated mining jurisdiction;
• The strategic nature of the deposit: PGE’s and cobalt are on Australia’s critical minerals list, PGE’s, cobalt and nickel are on the United States’ critical minerals list;and
• Global palladium supply being dominated by Russia and South Africa (38% each),with risks presenting for both these sources including power supply and social ** in South Africa and prolonged sanctions against Russia.

Critical minerals exposed projects are gaining funding from Government sources, including as a result of the USA’s Inflation Reduction Act, which is focussed on bolstering security of supply from friendly, low-risk jurisdictions. Much of this finance is low cost, non-recourse and in some cases, cash grants to support project development. This is lowering the cost of capital for recipient projects and potentially making them more attractive to acquire.Companies we believe would be attracted to Gonneville’s scale, future-facing metals exposure and strategic value include BHP Group Limited (BHP, not rated), Anglo American plc (AAL:LN, not rated), Glencore plc (GLEN:LN, not rated) and Sibanye-Stillwater(SSW:SJ, not rated).

BHP in particular may benefit, due to an objective to grow its nickel sulphide business to a scale relevant to its overall business and have control of raw material supply to its downstream smelting and refining operations in WA.

There has also been speculation that Gonneville has attracted the interest of mining investors that value large-scale, strategic assets such as

Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd and

Wyloo Metals, an investment vehicle of Andrew Forrest.

Wyloo Metals, in addition to having acquired Mincor Resources (MCR, de-listed), is working with IGO Ltd (IGO, under review) towards the development of an integrated battery materials facility in Kwinana,Western Australia, adjacent IGO’s Lithium Hydroxide Refinery JV with Tianqi LithiumCorporation.

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Chalice Mining Ltd (CHN) 26 July 2023
Changes to our valuation

While there are no major changes to the project outlined in the June quarter update we have made allowances for the input cost inflation we have observed to be persistent across the resources sector. With the pending completion of the Gonneville Scoping Study, we expect it to be reflective of current industry cost levels. As such, we have lifted pre-production capital costs, operating costs and sustaining capital costs by ~10% in our modelled assumptions for the Gonneville project.In addition to this we have made the following changes to our valuation:

• Updated for our latest commodity price and exchange rate forecasts, which include lower palladium, platinum and cobalt prices, partially offset by higher gold and copperprices; and

• Updated for CHN’s latest capital structure and cash position.As a result of these changes our risk-adjusted NPV-based valuation is lowered by 16%,(dropping from $11.95/sh to $9.99/sh), which we round to the nearest 10c for a Valuation of $10.00/sh.
With upside of 68% from the last closing share price, we retain our Speculative Buy recommendation in conformity with our ratings structure.

Upcoming catalysts - Key upcoming catalysts for CHN include:

• The completion of the Gonneville Scoping Study, which we expect to evaluate two development scenarios (a smaller scale staged development and a large scale bulk development) which is now targeted for completion in the current (September 2023)quarter which will incorporate the latest Resource update and results from ongoing metallurgical test work;

• Potential outcomes from the strategic partnering process that is underway, initially seeking participation from minority joint venture or off-take partners and subsequently from mining and operating partners;

• Ongoing results from the Resource infill and extension drill-out program of the Gonneville deposit at Julimar, where recent step-out holes have confirmed high grade mineralisation continues to a depth of at least 1,100m, compared the ~800m depth of the current Mineral Resource;

• Updates on the timing of the Gonneville Pre-Feasibility Study, which will build off the key findings of the Scoping Study and further consider the results of more comprehensive and ongoing metallurgical test work;

SOURCE: BELL POTTER SECURITIES ESTIMATES

I live in hope, too, have put all my LTR investments (which were modest, as I missed out on this early on) Into CHN and AZS - so I am chewing my fingernails too, part of the 'fun' of playing the stock market!
Taurisk