There will be a graphite shortfall starting in 2025. Which new exploration companies will have "surely rallied to meet demand"? It takes years for mines to come online, so you are incorrect here. Synthetic is also no easy feat and is at the mercy of energy pricing. Synthetic also requires green energy to meet ESG standards - how many projects does this rule out?
Customers want to secure their supply chains as they don't want to rely on an unpredictable China. See their recent export boycott of graphite to Sweden as one example. Continuing outside of China, the US haven't produced graphite since the 1950's and one of their only projects is still going through a feasibility stage. Europe isn't much better than the US, with only one notable natural anode project entering into stage 1 production at the end of 2024.
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Ann: Siviour Battery Anode Material Study Results, page-207
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