could surprise market in august, page-3

  1. 450 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 3
    Mike, I'm heading to bed now (after tonight having read through annual reports and built a financial model on Austereo (AEO.AX)...not sure if you've heard of it...owner/operator of radio stations. Attractive business - highly cash generative, capital-light (OCF covers Stay-in-business capex by a factor > 6 times, something few companies can sustain), and with very predictable financial performance. It's perceived by media analysts to be an ex-growth business, resulting in the stock to be valued - wrongly, I believe - as a bond proxy, but management does well to grind out modest EPS and DPS growth through judiciously-timed on-market share buyback campaigns. Trouble is, while QUALITY is what you buy, VALUE is what you get (my investment discipline calls for BOTH quality AND value to co-exist before I invest), and AEO looks only modestly undervalued, but not substantially enough so. For the record, the stock is trading on (all FY2011 forecasts): 8.3x EV/EBITDA, and FCF yields of 8.4% and 6.2% on market cap and Enterprise Value, respectively. But keep it on a watch list somewhere, because one day when the media cycle rolls over, AEO will surely fall in market value, which will be the entry point. $1.30 is where the margin of safety can be found, in my view. But, I digress. You were asking about WHK Group. For context, I have followed this stock since about 1996, I think, when it was called Investor Group. I initially bought the stock in 1998 and then again in 2002 again, whn I took a really meaningful position. During the subsequent 5 years the stock re-rated to the point of absurdity (>20 times P/E at times). I never bought the stock again until 12 months ago. I have been acquiring the stock since then. So I do indeed have strong views on this company, its business model, its management and its outlook which I will summarise for you tomorrow.
 
Add to My Watchlist
What is My Watchlist?
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.

Currently unlisted public company.

arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.