"11.8Mt versus 12.4Mt LCE. Rincon's LCE is only 4.8% smaller" With due respect I think this is wrong, that's not the way you calculate.
You need to convert resounce to lithium content using their grade. The difference between Rincon and Phoenix is 25% to 29%. (Phoenix is bigger)
"A$104/t LCE to A$516/t LCE range" .... This range is mere current valuation trend and not precise way to achieve fair value.
There are other well known methodologies are available to derive fair values such as Discounted Cashflow, NPV, Pay Back ratio.
Below is a sample from 2019, the average payback period is 4 years.
So, say Phoenix is taken over at $2bn USD + $1bn USD CAPEX for setting up 20k - 30k plant. what will be the payback ratio? Or reverse engineer it, what will be the fair value to get payback period of 5 to 6 years for 40 years mine life?
