Mate, nail on head.
Very surprised the thread has not zeroed in on this.
Of all the battery minerals, graphite is by far the most exposed as China-centric:
RNU used Fastmarkets for their pricing projections.
I urge everyone to read their take on what IRA-compliant is currently interpreted as, and what it actually might become: https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/confusion-persists-over-requirements-of-ira-on-brm
When all the US battery gigafactories under construction/ramping up come on line and the US automakers actually produce at the scale required to meet mandated zero emission targets (eg federal vehicles 2027) what relevance is the China-dominated/manipulated graphite price going to have?
Will China graphite be restricted to Chinese EV makers?
Will there be a clear divide between IRA-compliant (US)/ESG Battery Pass-compliant (EU, maybe global) providers and cheap andcheerful chokey Chinese makers?
IMO eventually yes.
A low cost natural graphite producer in a safe IRA jurisdiction with one of the greenest grids on the planet (SA) is going to require no expensive/dodgy workarounds for cell or automakers & contribute great ESG scores. Go RNU!
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