just a theory ..., page-59

re: just a theory ... ss chatter Excellent effort all, Awesome to see many heads ticking as it can only be good for all concerned. A few points bought up on SS below.


QUOTE:
"The share price for HDR is merely an elastic connection to the reality of what is currently happening in West Africa."


I agree watchmaker. Great post!


QUOTE:
"To me, without anymore exploration success HDR looks fully priced at $1.50. I do expect more exploration success but that might be months away yet. For what it is worth I think Tiof is around 400mmbo, and could be much bigger and could give HDR a minor kick. Tevet pays for the current program."


Flasherman, I can't say I agree with you here. Lets scrap the whole HDR portfolio bar Chinguetti and Tiof. I'll use your 400MB for Tiof and 140MB for Chinguetti with a 19% interest to HDR. At a mere A$10 per barrel profit we are talking over a billion dollars worth of reserves. This values the rest of HDR at zero.
If you do some calculations to fathom the Tiof trap you will be staggered!1% of the defined Tiof area comes in at over 500MB. Perhaps irrelevant when you apply the geology formulas but it just gives an idea of the size of the trap. Of more importance is the fact that no edge has been defined which allows significant upside on current base case estimates.
WPL are on record saying "Tiof has taken us to another place" We've since had successful appraisals with a few technical glitches testing the flow which are only temporary IMHO.
As for Tevet, it has paid for the program 5 - 10 times over at worst as it will be tied into the Chinguetti platform! A success in anyone's language IMHO.

Keep up the good work fellow FA, TA players!

Cheers,
xmagx