Hard to have much faith in mgmt after the last 12 mths:
- ACV increasingly challenged as a measure and disappeared after Nov22 possibly because even the tenuous basis they used to calculate this figure resulted in them having to report a slowdown/negative growth
- cashflow has just not materialised and if you look at the 12mth trailing numbers, has in fact been particularly poor in FY2023
- on the 28th of July they released a price sensitive announcement but what was quite explicit in that announcement was any lack of detail of when and how much would come to 3DP
- on the 31st they released a 4C indicating the worst cash receipt since 2Q21, highlighted that they had collected 1.8m in July and explicitly stated "The core business operationcontinues to self-fund organic growth across the business in Australia and the US."
Cash Receipts (AUD) TTM (Cash receipts) Growth Net Operating cash TTM (Net operating cash) 1 1Q2020 306 44 2 2Q2020 185 -787 3 3Q2020 532 -297 4 4Q2020 820 1,843 220 -820 5 1Q2021 609 2,146 303 -333 -1,197 6 2Q2021 635 2,596 450 -231 -641 7 3Q2021 1,374 3,438 842 211 -133 8 4Q2021 1,453 4,071 633 98 -255 9 1Q2022 983 4,445 374 -931 -853 10 2Q2022 2,849 6,659 2,214 800 178 11 3Q2022 2,360 7,645 986 64 31 12 4Q2022 1,661 7,853 208 -1,387 -1,454 13 1Q2023 3,411 10,281 2,428 213 -310 14 2Q2023 1,962 9,394 -887 -977 -2,087 15 3Q2023 3,256 10,290 896 531 -1,620 16 4Q2023 782 9,411 -879 -1,791 -2,024
Has Olsen fronted up to anything in the last 6 mths to explain any of this; if there was a way to burn your bridges with shareholders, he has certainly gone about it the right way.
The only upside is that he has only raised 2m so the dilution is limited, but given the abovementioned behavior, I would not bet against the price falling below the 12c raise price and the SPP falling over.....it does not indicate whether Veritas will take up any shortfall, but that 6% fee does not seem enough for them to cover that risk....lets see what the 23rd details show.
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