Ann: Half-year Financial Results 2023 Presentation, page-10

For most parts, I have a very similar view.

The only difference is the price for Q4 is not fully locked in imho, the price lag is more likely to be 4 wks, not a full 3 mth.

Bear in mind, the now 24% Chinese market exposure is largely priced on API5, not NEWC. So I think the product mix will be rebalanced and potentially pointing to a disproportionally more lower average realised price across all products.

I am quite convinced BOC can be a debt financial partner if needed to purchase BHP asset, I think the fact management declared a higher than expected interim dividend means they are not looking to pull the trigger actively, unless YAL gets a good deal price wise.