IMO this war is a stalemate and one now has to ask what are the reasonable prospects of a ceasefire/settlement.
The big question is, will the Ukrainian refugees who have migrated return to the Ukraine if there is a ceasefire/settlement?
"By December 2022, between 3.6 and 5.4 million people were internally displaced in Ukraine, while at least 7 million had moved outside of Ukraine. Overall, the war has displaced between 25% and 30% of the total Ukrainian population." (source European Commission)
IMO, no, the vast majority of Ukrainian refugees , particuluarly women and children won't return to the Ukraine because before this war the Ukraine was the poorest country in Europe and these refugees have now a better lifestyle abroad than they ever had in the Ukraine. Just look at the Ukrainian refugees' lifestyle here vs that of when they lived in the Ukraine?
And for those who think that the Ukraine is winning the war, here is the most recent BBC Ukraine war map:
