Daily 18 Aug
Positives
Stoch 5 is above its sig line & rising.
Stoch 14 is above its sig line & rising
MACD appears to be flattening.
Histogram shows a mild bullish divergence
Fri range was below the 5 day avg.
Fri Vol was below the 5 day avg
Negatives
Stochastics are in the oversold area below 20
MACD is below the sig line.
Histogram is below zero
Outlook
The outlook on the charts remains grim with few positive signs.
During the week there was a new low reached at the lower end of my projected targets.
Shorter’s were still active making up more than half the daily net sell volumes.
My daily models show multiple upside signals but those may be short lived.
Fri high was at the top of the downtrend channel so one would expect that to be some resistance initially.
Tentative support atm is around 22 – 23. Another failure here drive by the shorter’s could see a new low target down around 18.
Resistance initially is around 25 then up to 27 – 30.
Long term holders will be shaking their heads at the sp decline but the fundamentals are unchanged & the next announcement will likely show solid progress toward ramping up production.
There is plenty of good news coming so its just a waiting game for now.
The demand for Li is only going to increase & likewise AGY production will generate huge profits to the company.
Puna & RIO have been seen together a lot lately, could they be the strategic partner or are they just dating?
Weekly
There is nothing positive to say about the weekly chart other than it looks pretty if you like red.
Outlook
Vol last week was higher than the 5 week average for the second week in a row.
Net selling was 14,218,050 compared to the prev weeks 5 mill odd. That is also the largest net sell vol for 12 weeks. Is that the capitulation or just the start?
Shorts for the week made up 45% of the net selling compared to the prev weeks 97%. That was the lowest level for several weeks
Shorting has had a very large influence over the last several weeks & has obviously been used to influence the sellers into dumping their shares.
The wks low at 22.5 reached the bottom of the projected range & recovered some to close up a bit off that.
My weekly models show multiple downside sigs so I would expect t o see the low tested again in the coming week.
As with the daily, if the nearest support around 22 – 23 fails then the next downside target is around 18 & potentially 15.
Resistance initially is around 25- 27
