Ha, yeah, you're reading my mind @GT3loui (and @SplitFusion too, we need more factual discussion to return here hey guys - that moderation of Loui's post is ridiculous btw HC).
Some numbers and facts to run with as it seems to have all become a little silly around here, to back up what GT and Split are saying.... we've all been a bit quiet recently but let's remind ourselves of the facts of all this:
Immediate NAL revenue: Example: US$282,500,000 selling 113ktpa at a low US$2500/t spot (much lower than current SC spot pricing even after the recent large drop in pricing). US$101,700,000 selling 113ktpa at US$900/t. Total annual revenue (over this current 12 months..) at these low prices gives NAL US$384,200,000 which is currently A$599,715,000.
Ha... that is now half of our current market cap at this daft current share price.
So, NAL will generate a revenue of $600m AUD at these low prices used in the calculation and obviously considerably more if prices remain at the current low and a LOT more if prices improve again. So, 75% of A$600m is A$450m in revenue just from NAL for our share selling 5.5% ish spod only per year. Canadian tax breaks apply remember.
Now, how much was the cost of that carbonate plant again?
In relation to going downstream with the carbonate production:
All-in sustaining costs per tonne of lithium carbonate are estimated to be US$11,997 (call it $12k). So if sold for $25k/t (the price used in the carbonate study) then would be making around $276,000,000 gross profit from NAL carbonate only. If carbonate was selling for say the current depressed price of $30,100, well, you can do the maths; yes, that's US$416,300,000 gross profit from NAL, based on production of 23ktpa of carbonate.
Now, just for laughs, imagine say if we could increase NAL's MRE and plant throughput, and say increase recoveries with say, iron sorting in pit (all sound familiar?), and say could produce 250ktpa of spod to feed downstream plant.So on that same basis then let's try the numbers based on 30kt of carbonate. We're still then looking at US$18,000 profit margin per tonne, so that's US$540,000,000 gross profit. In AUD that's $842,284,000m GROSS (PRE TAX) PROFIT, just from NAL in one year. Our 75% of that equates to A$631,713,000m.... over half our current market cap in pre tax profit just from NAL based on $30k/t...
This is for a CAPEX of US$409,972,000 (C$555m) with PLL needing to pay 25% so our share US$307,500,000 approx.
So, going back to those spod revenue numbers NAL should easily be able to pay for it's own CAPEX to complete the carbonate plant with this year and next year's sales profits of spod sales alone...
Oh yes, gee, then there's Moblan....
So, as discussed previously, Albermarle paid $109m for 5% of PMT, valuing their 109mt inferred only resource at around $2,180,000,000. So, if equate the same valuation to Moblan at currently 51mt (which is at near DFS and measured and indicated also, high grade low strip, with far better access and infrastructure) at $1,020,000,000.
We own 60% of Moblan so on this basis that's $600m value of Moblan based on the same numbers Albermarle valued Patriot's deposit at, even though they're years behind Moblan and it will require significantly greater CAPEX and ongoing OPEX to mine that resource given it's incredibly remote location and physical nature with lakes etc.
Moblan within the next few months is likely to increase again significantly in resource size too remember, and DFS is due November this year.
So, my take... based on all these ACTUAL NUMBERS, this current share price will be looked back on as absolute madness in a couple of years imo.
NAL should now be able to pay for itself to go downstream by 2026 or even 2025. As it proves itself profitable over the next couple of quarters there will also be the option for regular project financing to accelerate this too obviously if we wanted.
We have significant tax breaks also too due to the Canadian incentivisation scheme.
So then if we are able to bring a strategic partner onboard for Moblan along with government grants for that and NAL, we should have no issue in covering our 60% CAPEX contribution to Moblan also with production targeted for 2027.
If timeframes are met (they have all been met so far to be fair!) then once Moblan starts up with high grade low strip mining, NAL will have been chugging along with carbonate sales for a year already and Sayona will then be an absolute cash machine and the leading producer in North America.
All that's worth a lot more than $1.2b AUD market cap I'd say lol......
Lithium is down yes, sentiment is low yes, but this baby has been thrown out with the bath water. Every company has it's own set of unique circumstances and fundamentals, even if the sector over all has come off the boil, many lithium plays will fail, many were overvalued, we imo were absolutely not and are just getting going yet have been brought down to this crazy current price based on no fact whatsoever as the numbers above prove imo.
Sayona has all to play for, forget the noise and remember the facts.
(20min delay)