Hi friend
@KluckThe "reply function" is not working for me - yet again - but I am replying to your
Post #:69537609Yes indeed. LC is saying that "the strategy has not changed" but it seems to me that the level of the ambition has certainly cranked up to a new level, at least.
As for the strategy itself - there is room for debate. As others have pointed out, IMU has not previously said they would take a product "all the way to market" - so that statement does sound like an adjustment to their strategy, but I guess it depends on what you regard as "strategy."
The Azer-cel acquisition fits with OnCARlytics like a key in a lock. Assuming that both products work as planned - then used together they will open the door to something of enormous value - a complete "in house" treatment which can potentially attack most, or maybe almost all, solid tumours, with low toxicity, relatively low cost (compared to autologous CAR-T drugs) and with no life threatening delays (unlike autologous CAR-T drugs).
That's a potential mid term outcome, but in the short term it also significantly strengthens their position when it comes to the previously stated strategic outcomes of "company buyout" or partnering/licensing. eg. A big pharma company which does not currently have a CD-19 CAR-T might now view IMU as a far more attractive and valuable acquisition - because they won't have to then do a deal with one of their competitors to get access to a CAR-T to go with OnCARlytics. The same applies to the value and attractiveness of a licensing deal for OnCARlytics alone - if offered as a complete product with Azer-cel.
But with Azer-cel already well advanced as a stand alone treatment for a couple of key liquid cancer applications - and positioned with the FDA to go forward for that - complete with a manufacturing facility and trained staff who are already producing it - I think it makes absolute sense for IMU to also say "we will take it to market." And by raising extra cash (even though in the short term that's annoying a lot of shareholders) they are sending a message to the wider audience (big Pharma) that they really mean it. Which may all be part bluff, of course. I mean - if a Big Pharma player made "an offer to good to refuse" then IMU would definitely licence this out and not go to market alone, but having Azer-cel AND the mfg plant to produce it in volume AND a very strong cash position AND a stated position that "we will take it to market" - that's sending a message that low ball offers will not be accepted.
Which has all along been a key strategic direction of the company: raise cash whenever you can, and ignore the short term pain of that, because a strong cash position strengthens your bargaining.
We all hate the low share price, and the fact that the CR is therefore happening at a very low share price, but Imugene has extremely limited ability to doing anything about that low share price. I think the roadshows and the incredibly positive statements from Yuman Fong and Jakob Dupont were an attempt at stemming the share price slide - but it didn't work. Maybe because of large scale sp manipulation (if you believe the conspiracy theories on that) or maybe just because investors generally are easily scared and - generally - have a poor understanding of the science, and because the wider market itself is pretty fearful too. Personally, I think it's a bit of all these things.
So the share price will keep stagnating until one or more of the following events occurs:
- Imugene publishes solid data showing definite and significant therapeutic effect of CF33 in either or both of the Checkvacc or Vaccinia trials.
- Imugene publishes solid data showing definite and significant therapeutic effect of PD1-vaxx in the current trial.
- Imugene publishes solid data showing definite and significant therapeutic effect of the Her-vaxx combo study with Keytruda
- Imugene achieve a licensing deal for HER-vaxx (or maybe the whole B-cell portfolio)
- Imugene gets the Azer-cell registration trial happening and achieves a positive result - with Azer-cel heading for market by IMU or through a licensing deal
- Strong positive results from OnCARlytics clinical trials
I'm certainly hoping that outcome 1 happens quite soon.
I think outcomes 2 and 3 are highly likely too - but will take longer
Outcome 4 has been written off by many, but in my view it is still likely to happen. It may not happen until after outcome 3, but I'm sure potential buyers are still watching the whole B-cell platform very very closely, and considering options. When IMU says they will take Azer-cell "all the way to market" I think they are also sending a message to anyone looking at the B cell platform, and the message is "we are not desperate. If necessary we will keep going it alone." A surprise result on the B-cell platform could come at any time.
Outcome 5 is a couple of years away at best. Same for outcome 6. However that doesn't matter if outcomes 1,2,3 or 4 happen first.
Then there is an outcome 7. "Company buyout."
I don't love that myself - because I have a long term view and I would like to see IMU do multiple partnering/licensing deals and use the cash to (perhaps) keep one or two products as an "in house" project and/or further diversify their product base. The share price would be far far higher than the previous peak, and I would sell half my holding for the capital gain and keep the rest for the dividends. However I do think outcome 7 remains a possibility. That worries me - because of the current low share price - but I do think that an attempted takeover would lead to a bidding war, and the end price would not be cheap.
Meanwhile the Azer-cell acquisition is - for me - a huge strategic plus for Imugene and, as I have said previously, there is nothing so far about any of their products which causes me to doubt the science. This is not "blind faith." I look at all results based on their merit and I don't assume that positive pre-clinical results will definitely result in positive results for human trials - but the indications so far are very good for every product in their portfolio, which is a rare thing.
To be clear - I am not in the "Imugene will
cure all cancer" camp - just because cancer is so complex and the human body likewise, but I do think they stand several very very good chances of demonstrating massive improvement on current standards of care in some or potentially many cancer types, and now they have added yet another huge shot on that target.
They only need one of these to come good, and IMU will be worth far more than anyone here has paid for it.
In some scenarios, we might see a string of successes and Imugene becomes a household name.
Imagine Imugene that....
And yes - I acknowledge that some here are suffering severe financial pain, or fighting severe illness, and cannot take a longer term view. If you are in that position, my heart and best wishes go out to you. I can only say that Imugene's success depends on good science, and good science takes time - although as Prof Yuman Fong keeps telling us, Imugene is actually progressing very rapidly for work of this type, and he himself had made the most positive statements he can make about CF33, within the limits of scientific and legal propriety.
So yeah - nothing is certain but I think the mid to long term prospects for major success are excellent, and a major boost to the share price in the short term is also entirely possible.
I'm taking my full allocation is the SPP, even though I will have to sell something else to fund it.
Best wishes to all
Dave
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