Re-watched the Webinar last night (“Block 9” replaced my usual watching of “The Block”). a couple of key takeaways:
1. We now have a 2-pronged approach: The upper sheet (1B) is larger than expected, and it may take some time to ascertain the actual size (they are working on that). The company will - with zero doubts - produce off 1B. A1 may also be used, and there are references to putting in several more shallow wells across the block. The size is so large that AP is having to work on transport logistics, but there are several avenues that can be explored. In essence, Melbana are now a producer.
2. Based on their own experience (A1) and the experience of others (Marti 1 and Marti 5) the drill to Marti via A3 is de-risked (somewhat). Marti is higher pressure with lighter oil - there is zero doubt about that. The company expects Marti to be a whale. BOP and drill bit has been engineered specifically.
3. There is no CR. AP was very clear that they are fully funded for the current programme and beyond. Any market talk of this should signal to you to immediately put that person on ignore as they are talking rubbish.
It could take anywhere from 1 month to 1 year, but I am convinced that MAY will be successful and the SP will go supersonic. The faith that CUPET has in Melbana is clear, and this will provide additional support. The location of Block 9 provides historical links to lighter oil, and the previous observations of drills into Marti provide confidence that they are in the right place at the right time.
When trade opens, ever piece of left over silver in the Kit war chest is going on MAY. Not often that a 10+ bagger stares you in the face like this.
Enjoy the ride.
Kit.
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