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Narly

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30/08/23

11:26

Post #: 69633672
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Originally posted by dunnomuch: ↑

no idea? I trade directions using options. I have never got much of an idea if it’s at the bottom or the top, I just like to trade the middle bit of the movement either way. It would appear that a bounce has or is happening and that the next movement is up.

Given that there is every likelihood that PLS could put on 50c in 2 days I could well imagine a price of over $5 fairly quickly hence I have bought $5 call options at a price of about 3c, I’m backing my analysis with action. By the same token there is every reason that PLS could drop by 50c which it often does so I have $4.80 September puts. If the price exceeds $5.30 then I’ll buy $5 October puts and probably get a chance to exercise or trade them too.

PLS is inherently volatile so both answers (up or down) can be correct. Why is it so volatile? The issues for PLS as an institutional investment is that it is a very new producer and it’s commodity is quite new and highly volatile as demand and supply are also very new and no chance of equilibrium has come in sight. New producers that are ramping up production face hurdles of cost blow outs and price collapse etc, PLS appears to be moving forward but as anyone who has been investing for the last couple of decades will have seen… things can easily go wrong particularly in mining. So because of all of the uncertainty around almost every facet of PLS and its underlying commodity… volatility is nuts. Because the price can over shoot and collapse so quickly it also is fertile ground for shorting hence all the short positions. As those short positions are also adding to the complexity of pricing it just keeps blowing out those volatility positions more and more… I’m too optimistic to succeed in shorting, I’ve tried and I just get it wrong and it costs a lot to be wrong so I stick to what I know on things that look good long term.

long story short… I honestly have no idea what price it will ever be but my money is on a $5+ finish by Thursday 11:00am which will allow me to exit quite a few contracts without getting squeezed.

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I like your assessment that it is a young company in early production with big expansion to happen in the next few years, therefore many uncertainties with everything to do with it. Great summary!!!!
PS - I predicted 2 weeks ago it would stay under $5 until ex divy day. I really meant it would be under $5 the last day's close before ex divy. FMG's SP was hammered the last 2 days before ex divy 6 mths ago. I'll be watching that. For your sake I hope it is above $5. ATB. Cheers

Last edited by Narly: 30/08/23

PLS Price at posting: $4.79 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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