SYA 6.67% 3.2¢ sayona mining limited

General Discussion Topics, page-116578

  1. 13,604 Posts.
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    As is often the case there is a fixation over price when it should be on MC as that's the Companies current value, so the question really needs to be asked what is fair value at a time of weakening spod prices by comparing with another company.
    PLS is probably the best way to make a comparison as we are in the same business of selling concentrate . The big difference is scale , is dripping with cash , pays a dividend , owns 100% of a huge resources and has two profitable years in a row so has a track record.

    The market has placed a MC $14b or $11.7b on PLS, if you strip out the cash.

    SYA has a MC of approximately $1b if you strip out the cash.

    So PLS has a MC around 11.7 X that of SYA based on gross revenue of $4.1b. At current prices in AUD I estimate our gross revenue would be be in the region $400m +/- at nameplate for FY 24 so PLS has revenue aprox 10 X that of SYA , so proportionately not a lot of difference but we have yet to post an annual profit so have no track record .

    It's a very rough guide as they are both at very different stages of their development but the bottom line is proportionately the valuations using an estimate of our revenue against a known revenue for PLS aren't a lot different yet we aren't in the same leage so perhaps one needs to get things into perspective and lower our expectations on what our valuation should be at this stage, after all we are just starting production and have plenty of unknowns ...as a side note PLS currently trades on a PE of 5.9 and thats for a highly successfull Company .

    Anyway some food for thought , it's a tough time for most in the Lithium sector and is unlikely to change a lot untill Lithium prices turn upwards IMO, such is life as a miner its a long haul at times ..

    Cheers Whisky
 
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