modelling cash/debt *if* things go as planned.

Have attempted to model 'good' scenario where Sillaro performs as expected based on key events to PVE in next 18 months and the cash/debt position that results. Have not modelled unusual costs in here so is a 'vanilla' scenario. Also assumes Castello corrective drill in 2011 is succesful. Will attempt to model 'bad' scenario when i get the chance. Please correct any mistakes!

On this scenario, even by December this year this don't look too bad at all.....



Starting Base: Jun 30th 2010
Cash: 2,480
Debt: 7,000
--------------------
Sept 10
- Quarterly production : Approx 9.4 million cubic metres. (9 million Sillaro / 0.4 million Castello)
- Quarterly sales: 9.4m * 0.30 Euros = 2.8 million
- Quarterly production costs / exploration etc: 1.4 million(estimated based on quarterlies - less setup costs but more admin)
- Quarterly Debt repayment: 1 milion (assumed split repayment to meet 5,000 target end of 2010)

Sept Position:
Cash: 2,900
Debt: 6,000
-------------------------------
Dec 10
- Quarterly production : Approx 9.6 million cubic metres. (9.3 million Sillaro / 0.3 million Castello)
- Quarterly sales: 9.6m * 0.30 Euros = 2.9 million
- Quarterly production costs / exploration etc: 1.6 million(estimated based on quarterlies + Corregio)
- Quarterly Debt repayment: 1 milion (assumed split repayment to meet 5,000 target end of 2010)

Dec Position:
Cash: 3,200
Debt: 5,000

--------------------------------
Mar 11
- Quarterly production : Approx 9.5 million cubic metres. (9.3 million Sillaro / 0.2 million Castello)
- Quarterly sales: 9.5m * 0.30 Euros = 2.9 million
- Quarterly production costs / exploration etc: 1.4 million(estimated based on quarterlies)
- Quarterly Debt repayment: 1 milion

Mar Position:
Cash: 3,700
Debt: 4,000
--------------------------------
Jun 11
- Quarterly production : Approx 9.3 million cubic metres. (9.3 million Sillaro / zero Castello - shutdown)
- Quarterly sales: 9.3m * 0.30 Euros = 2.8 million
- Quarterly production costs / exploration etc: 1.8 million(extra startup cost)
- Quarterly Debt repayment: 0.5 milion (expect to pay down less with Castello spend)
- Potential 2.5 million Castello spend

Jun Position:
Cash: 1,700
Debt: 3,500

--------------------------------
Sept 11
- Quarterly production : Approx 13.5 million cubic metres. (9.3 million Sillaro / 4.2 mill Castello)
- Quarterly sales: 13.5m * 0.30 Euros = 4 million
- Quarterly production costs / exploration etc: 1.5 million(estimated based on quarterlies)
- Quarterly Debt repayment: 1.5 milion


Sept Position:
Cash: 2,700
Debt: 2,000

--------------------------------
Dec 11
- Quarterly production : Approx 13.5 million cubic metres. (9.3 million Sillaro / 4.2 mill Castello)
- Quarterly sales: 13.5m * 0.30 Euros = 4 million
- Quarterly production costs / exploration etc: 1.5 million(estimated based on quarterlies)
- Quarterly Debt repayment: 2 milion


Dec Position:
Cash: 3,200
Debt: 0

---------------------------------


Extrapolated 2012 income: 16 million
Extrapolated 2012 costs : 5 million
Extrapolated 2012 profit: 11 million

Current market cap: $28million AUD
2012 profit: $15million AUD i.e. approx 50% current market cap. (excludes eg setup of new plant etc for other fields which should be happening by then... so should be funded by this cashflow).