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alexei ii

3,110 Posts.

5926

01/09/23

10:39

Post #: 69683097
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Originally posted by gRungeKutta: ↑

Guys, 25-30c is nowhere near enough, no where NEAR fair value.

I, and many other far more knowledgable people than me (such as VOGC), have done some pretty in depth analysis to compare the estimates of MAY's reserves and factoring in a LOT of reductions due to uncertainties, risk, recoverability, etc.. and still conservative average fair values were always around the 86 cent mark.

My own analysis that I did about 2-3 months ago is here below (see the link), bounding a fair value anywhere from 14 cents to $3+, with a best estimate at 85 cents.

That was BEFORE the massive uplift in resource estimate from two weeks ago, where the net pay zones basically more than tripled in the upper sections (amistad).
That was BEFORE the recoverability was KNOWN to be higher that 5%, way higher. Probably more like 15%. Who knows.
That was BEFORE this oil in Unit 1B of Amistad was flowing easily at nearly 2,000 barrels per day, and at the highest end of "Heavy" oil: 19 API.
That was BEFORE we knew that even this flow rate of nearly 2,000 barrels per day is with ONLY 20% of UNIT 1B OPENED UP TO FLOW AT ALL ANYWAY.

DYOR. This thing is WAY bigger than 12-15c. If you want to sell your shares when it gets to 15cents by the end of this week, be my guest, you're welcome to, and good luck finding another opportunity like this on the mark.
This is WAY bigger than even 20-30 cents. *YOU MUSTn'T BE AFRAID TO DREAM A LITTLE BIGGER DARLING*

I will not sell a single share below $1.

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your numbers are pretty reasonable from a value in ground perspective.@gRungeKutta

As each of the non-geological risks start to diminish, the SP will begin to approach those values.

As for the geological risk...imo there is more risk of these numbers being exceeded, as the development drilling progresses and more of the Amistad reservoir is tapped.

We still do not have the requisite data to go from prospective to contingent in Marti and Alameda, but if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck...its not an ant. A3 will reveal all.

MAY Price at posting: 7.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
36 Upvote

3 Great analysis

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