Just in US, there will be 360 newborn girls with Rett Syndrome each year (3.6m annual newborns in US).
DAYBUE, being first ever FDA approved drug for Rett Syndrome, is approved for age 2 and older, with average life expectancy of 40s-50s years. This drug alone is far enough to justify upside for NEU, imo, especially compared with the US$7.3B takeover for similar drug owned by Reata.
If the Phase 2 results were positive, then current cash is likely to use funding phase 3; if failed, then ample cash could be used for buy-backs or paying dividends, imo.
Based on the past trials/FDA approval results, success rate for Neurology phase 3 trials to NDA is 53%, then to FDA approval is 86.7%. The phase 2 success rate is relatively low, stands at 26.8%.
All imo.
NEU Price at posting:
$11.76 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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