The way Heiken-Ashi candles work sometimes look quite different from a traditional candle due to the way it averages the day behind it etc.. anyway quite a bit of up and down on a sideways move over the last week or so, on a traditional candle chart yesterday was green but due to too many Heinekens and Asahis old mate Heiken-Ashi sees it as a red day... but the sideways volatile shuffle, as boxed in with a square, continues...
Yesterday showed great support to lose less than the dividend in share price which is usually a sign that the market expects an increase in yield or profit or maybe M&A activity over the near term timeline. Interest rates, GDP figures, US rates etc all have created a bit of uncertainty in direction and that is clearly what we are looking at for PLS, the only difference is that the share price continues to move along the lines of the implied volatility which results in the big swings. Volatility is based of movements in the past etc and gives a good indication as to how the market perceives the estimation of fair value. PLS is an early stage producer of a highly volatile commodity which is why the forward estimates of profit and share price differ so wildly from one broker to the next. High volatility on a profitable and growing business lends itself to making money from trading the derivatives of your underlying securities and getting a dividend... I honestly can't think of many other stocks that this happens with. Coupled to the aforementioned volatility and dividend is the still quite liquid market that exists for a stock with 62% or so held by top 20s... I would imagine that plenty of the shorting is done using the hypothecated stock of top 20 holders, probably most if not all of the short stock is owned by the top 20. Don't blame the brokers that turn up in the broking reports for shorting, most don't take any risks and are shorting on behalf of a client's instructions and using stock from other clients under a stock-borrow (hypothecate) agreement. Morgan Stanley are about the most conservative broker that I've ever dealt with, they make money from clipping the ticket not in driving the bus. Beneficial and custodial interests are usually left out of those broker volume reports which kind of makes them pointless.
anyway... price has held a holding pattern, never sure what accumulation stage means... AQDQ is a Morgan Stanley product that allows you to accumulate or de-cumulate (not sure if thats a real word?) at a set price over a set time frame. Right now you can set an AQDQ to accumulate at a 15% discount on the current share price or de-cumulate at 15% premium. They achieve this by way of structured products using puts and calls etc, so you can buy PLS in a year at 15% discount to today's price which is handy if the price doubles.. If anyone wants to get into structured products but doesn't have the initial capital (Morgan Stanley creates positions over $1m+ assigned value) you can have a look at Stropro. They fraction-ise structured positions into $10k lots, not sure if fractionise/fraction-ise is a word either? so back to the accumulation phase... dunno? what is it meant to look like? can someone post a clear example of how it has worked on PLS in the past? fractionalise might be the correct word?
Right.. enough of a tangent... given that the price held up so well yesterday and price has continued its crab walk even with crazy volatility it would appear that the market is waiting to either dump or load up on shares... pretty easy to take a bet on either direction.. so I have bought more $4.90 September 14 calls so that I've taken a longer outlook, more calls than puts. The $4.80 bought puts still anchor the September 21 $5.26 sold puts so coupled with the $4.90 and $5 September calls and the underlying stock in trading and super accounts... I'm pretty long PLS... however back to the volatility, it is real and a real part of pricing which results in multiple opportunities for shorting and structuring positions but creates pricing blowouts on derivatives and structure products... 2 edged swords can hurt a lot if used incorrectly... bought puts or calls go worthless if out of the money, sold puts can just keep rolling, I think my $5.26s were originally $2.61? Crazy stock is PLS...
Lastly, the circled slow stochastic, which mirrors the William R movement but with a different number, is looking up but a bit shaky... could drop again.. the share price touched and rejected the thick red downward pitchfork and looks to have moved to the thick blue 2-3 year old upward pitchfork but still off the orange trading one of this year... kind of crab walk to not really anywhere... volatility won't let it stay that way for long...
(20min delay)