AZS 0.00% $3.69 azure minerals limited

Free livestream of New World Metals Conference (today @ 3.30pm AWST), page-83

  1. 2,407 Posts.
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    Brilliant posts @DonnieDarko, especially the last one. lol.

    I'm glad I'm not the only one thinking we basically have a 9km x 5km pegmatite swarm from the same system and likely exhibiting roughly similar spodumene mineralisation and continuity throughout.

    Imagine the size deposit that would make if the theory holds true? You can see why some are getting carried away thinking it could be the biggest ever discovered.

    I believe it's already exceedingly likely to be in the Top 5 already.

    The question is what's the most likely scenario that happens next, and which would benefit share holders the most?

    1) MRE comes in at say 300MT Q2, 2024. Bidders emerge. Most likely SQM getting first refusal, and perhaps a, what, $5bn offer eventuates (remember it will be probably twice as large as LTR, but funds will only have been spent on the drilling and SS, as opposed to the billion or so spent developing LTR already)?

    2) Tony and Mark wish to extract full value from the project and want to develop it. I see this as somewhat unlikely. Maybe an SQM buyout of MC's holdings, they put up the money to develop the mine for an increased stake in the company, and it's developed that way / or as a JV?

    3) Someone leftfield like RIO / Albermarle try to elbow their way in? RIO seem awfully cheap with their attitude of late, so I can't see that happen. And ALB now are in the driving seat to take over at LTR, so that's possibly enough for them to handle right now.

    4) Other scenarios you guys might put forward?

    I really don't want to see this sold out too early. A $5bn bid from SQM would only cost them $4bn, and mean a $10 SP if that was their offer. I'd take that next year, for sure.

    The alternative is the project is fast tracked, we get diluted a certain amount, and see it to production. Providing there aren't any issues with the traditional land owners, the SS doesn't reveal anything untoward, and it all goes to plan, how long would it take to get the first ore out of port?

    Electricity, gas, roads, rail, port, staff, expertise, all within easy reach. It's ideally situated in every regard. That must take a year or so off the usual issues getting a mine up.

    Possible we could be producing DSO at the very least by 2026 given all approvals are expedited?
 
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