only a matter of time, page-14

elgaes i totally agree its a long term prospect, im a long term visionary in this and do cash flow projection valuations, acerage valuations, NPV well valuations all based on projected future values.

However having said all that i adjust my figures in line with the best evidence available to guide me.


The following highlights my reason for concern

Frances Dilworth No. 2H In Production
a. 7 day Initial Production Rate of 525 boepd < $250K
b. 14 day Initial Production Rate of 464 boepd < $225K
c. 30 day Initial Production Rate of 387 boepd < $433K
d. 60 day Initial Production Rate of 305 boepd < $640K
e. 90 day Initial Production Rate of 260 boepd < $546K
Total gross revenue of < $2M and still declining

7.) Frances Dilworth No. 3H In Production
a. 7 day Initial Production Rate of 552 boepd
b. 14 day Initial Production Rate of 501 boepd
c. 30 day Initial Production Rate of 429 boepd
Approx $1M so far, approx $2.5M by 90 days.

8.) Frances Dilworth No. 4H** In Production
a. 7 day Initial Production Rate of 445 boepd
b. 14 day Initial Production Rate of 340 boepd

Approx $1.75 M at 90 days

Compare that to AUT or Pioneers flows at 31mmcfgpd and 37mmcfgpd
Morgan its biggest had ip flows of >2000 boepd, paying the well off completely in just over 90 days.

Pioneers flows are below AUT, but comparible. Hence my suggestion, and its only an opinion that AZZ wont get the $11440 per acre Pioneer got from relinace Energy.

I hope im wrong as i reccomended AZZ to my old man back when i held it, and he still holds it. But in all honesty im thinking $6000 - $7000 per acre. Maybe $8-9000 at a wildly optimistic best.

If for a moment i thought you where right about $10-$12000 per acre i would have bought a truck load yesterday or today.

Its only early and the market hasnt absorbed the info yet and is waiting for a figure, but i think they voted today that its still uncertain.

Watching with interest and wishing you guys the best.