Allkem General Discussion, page-4470

“At around the 11min mark is the highlight for me. The discussion of the punishment in China if analysts do not play ball. Great indication of the pricing situation we are in.”

@SeeTheWorld
thanks for sharing your thoughts.

There is one thing I am trying to rap my head around and probably didn’t do a good job of asking the right question in one of my previous post.

my understanding is the majority of contract pricing, is intrinsically linked to a reference index based on the basket of underlying indexes. One of which is the Chinese carbonate index.

Joe in the pod cast was very dismissive of the Chinese spot carb index, saying only CATL and BYD are active. However these two make up over half of the market share and therefore what they do and say has large implication for the rest of the sector.

how does the above play out with Allkem and there decision to stockpile carb chemical in arg pending higher prices? Average price on sales for Q2 was $38k pt from memory.

given it’s pretty clear there will be a huge shortage at some point in the near future, do upstream producers start stockpiling as Allkem has started to do in anticipation for the shortage situation? I guess what is going through my head is a situation where the fundamentals say 2025 major shortage, however being only 12 - 18m away do producers start to carry much much higher inventory from now on, there for the prices rises start now and not in 18m time?

not advice