Recent Trading Activity

The Substantial Shareholder Notice lodged in August by the T Rowe Price organisation showed that they'd not been prepared to buy shares at more than 21.5c as they quite rapidly built up a holding this year. Since then though, a party or parties has certainly been prepared to do so.

Daily Volumes seem to have been above average of late and a fair amount of stock in RED was crossed at 26-26.5c last week (with even a handful of trades being done at 27c). If some shareholders are prepared to accept lower than these prices, it'd make sense for a buyer to hold back a little and see just how much stock they can soak up at lower prices.

This activity may simply be the result of a patient accumulator taking a view that RED's recent problems are behind it and that the time is ripe to build a decent holding in what appears to be an under-valued stock with quite bright prospects.

Alternatively, it could also be a potential predator building a base from which to launch a bid.

I noted a comment within a piece about RED in Friday's The Australian that "Market sources believe Red 5's shareholders would be supportive of a buyout of the company ... ". Possibly kite-flying or possibly a relatively informed insight.

One aspect though is that if the recent buying is leading to an offer being made, those doing the buying are outlaying a bit of cash by buying on market. As I said, it may simply be the acquisition of a stake upon which to launch a bid. But it could also indicate that if there's to be a bid, it could quite possibly be a cash bid.

Given the rumours about a particular interested party, I'd think a cash bid would have more appeal to RED shareholders than one simply offering them over-priced paper in the bidding entity.