Ann: Lance Production to Restart in 2024 under Revised LOM Plan, page-140

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Tomaszabc

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12/09/23

21:23

Post #: 69832713
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Originally posted by Johnyb888: ↑

I am no ISR expert so I can not directly comment on the risks asociated with this part of the operation.

But I do understand that all other mines that still need to be build will have risks both in cost, building issues and initial production problems.

If I compare PEN to a number of other projects, the current pricing doesn't really make a lot of sense.

We have a 50M+ lbs project suitable for ISR in the USA with studies done and permits good to go. There is an exploration target up to 200M lbs and they are still planning to produce within say 18 months.

Yes they do require around $95M dollars but have around $35M dollars so need say $60 to $70M. They are planning to ramp up to around 2M lbs per year.

Their MC is only $110 AUD..

So compare that to others... Say BOE which is about 1 year ahead and they will produce a bit more with a low cost (but their SF was done a year prior to PEN's so I expect the real gap is smaller). They are fully funded as well.

But they trade at well over 10x the price of PEN!

Even AGE with a considerably smaller project that is much, much earlier stage with no permits, a lot of studies still to be done and undoubtably way more then $95M to be spend before actually mining a pound is valued at more than 1.5x PEN...

LOT which does have a mine, but will require similar funding as PEN ($88M USD) to get back to producing and they own 80% of the project with their attributable Uranium mined being virtually the same as PEN (2M of the 2.5M lb per annum mined) and requiring at least 18Months from the moment they get funding (so almost certainly at least 2 years from production) and a resource slightly smaller than Lance, and it being in Africa (Malawi) is valued at 3x PEN... And their AISC is $36 USD from 2020 vs $39 USD for PEN from 2022 so probably at least as high...

So longer time to get to production, smaller resource with the resource in Malawi having little potential to increase (hence the merger with ACB) at least equal cost to get to production and at least equal production cost per pound and similar per annum production in Africa is worth 3 times as much as a bigger project with huge exploration upside, quicker time to production in the USA??

Seems a LOT of risk is priced in to the PEN price!

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Thanks for this analysis. I never really dig deep in numbers but something isn't right for me at this price level.
As I said- It is better to sit and do nothing in uranium sector as We see. Lotus didn't do much except for buying some equipment (like uranium detector for sorting line), merge with cheap ACB (good move). They are waiting and their share price goes up with 15 milions $ in cash.
Malawi and Kayelekera--- I will leave here some good documentary about Malawi- Dangerous Roads

Last edited by Tomaszabc: 12/09/23

PEN Price at posting: 9.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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