@joevoe - I agree that sentiment will be a key factor.
Last year when the sentiment was an expectation that Hawsons would get into production, the market cap was over $500 million. We are a long way from that type of sentiment and market cap.
However, I do think that sentiment is starting to change for the reasons listed in my post at the start of this thread. I think that change in sentiment could get us to a share price above 5 cents in the coming weeks, being a market cap of around $50 million, or one tenth of where it used to be.
The two short term factors that will drive this in my view will be:
Regal having sold out. That will be very hard to time exactly. Many believe that they are close with some anticipating around 10 million shares left when the Top 20 is posted mid month. The buy side currently looks stacked. I suspect with many hoping that Regal will do one last big dump. However, if that doesn't happen, a little bit of fear of missing out could kick in as some start to think that Regal has sold out or will not do a big dump and once Regal has stopped selling it won't take much to get above 4 cents.
Expectation of the Investor Information Memorandum. There could be some that will want to get in before this is released. As long as its half decent, I believe we will be back above $50 million market cap and five cents. If its fairly good, then comfortably above five cents.
Further announcements over coming months, such as more drilling, resource announcement, entering formal or exclusive talks with a limited number of offtakers or strategic partners are speculative but possible to probable and would push the price a bit higher. If I was management, I would be thinking about pushing the AGM to late November and trying to get another announcement or two out prior to the AGM, but that might depend on drilling, lab results etc which could be hard to time as some factors outside of their control. It would be nice if the Information Memorandum announcement gives us some timing on those types of activities.
Any formal deal with an offtake or strategic partner is pure speculation at this stage, and it would be at that point that the sentiment will start to return that production more likely and a price comfortably above 20 cents and that could happen within six months.
HIO Price at posting:
3.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
